Ultimate Frisbee Week 3
Week 3 Picks:
Philadelphia +3.5 – Montreal is 2-0 and Philly is 0-2 but Montreal beat a bad Toronto team and a Boston team missing multiple stars on the second leg of a road doubleheader. Philadelphia lost to Boston at near full strength by one and took reigning division co-champ New York to a two-goal nailbiter despite playing in horrid conditions that arguably favored New York’s gifted throwers. Now Philadelphia gets Montreal for their home opener and has most of their best players rostered. I like Philly to cover here and think they can potentially pull the upset; ML is +450 if interested.
Austin -3.5 – This is straightforward. Austin beat Dallas by three on the road at Dallas, now get Dallas at home and Dallas is paper thin, to the point of dressing their coach as a reservist (who is a good player, don’t get me wrong, but it seems to be that level of desperation). With temps in the low 90s, Dallas could get exhausted quickly having to lean on their stars. This rivalry tends to be close so I’d prefer the ML in a parlay but -3.5 is a solid spread too.
Salt Lake City -4.5 – Salt Lake City is off to a fierce start, upsetting last year’s division champs San Diego by two on the road then beating LA by three the next day, also on the road. They now get a young Seattle team who finished last in the division last year and is 0-2 to begin this year. To Seattle’s credit, they’ve played decently against two good teams, but now they head into Utah rostering only 18 out of a possible 20 and missing multiple offensive handlers. They have a couple flashy playmakers but structurally this is a bad spot going up against a very sound Salt Lake City team with nearly all their stars and looking to show off in front of a Utah crowd for the first time since 2014, when the previous franchise, the Lions, went 0-14 amidst one of the worst seasons in pro frisbee history.
Carolina -7.5 – The defending league champions drove down to Tampa Bay last weekend and won by six, now return home and play the Cannons again in what should be another blowout. It is true that Carolina will be missing several stars but they were missing several stars last weekend and still faced little difficulty. Tampa Bay has one of the weakest rosters in the league to begin with and will be missing multiple experienced players in Vinson and Travaglini, along with two of their stronger players Patel and Plunkett. Carolina should feast here and win by double digits imo.
Boston +3.5 – Boston has been rocky this year but should be at full strength minus Tannor Johnson. Johnson is one of their best players so that loss definitely hurts but this has been an underachieving team thus far and I think they’ll be hungry to play the division’s best and bounce back. New York is mixing up their lines a bit adding in some new talent imported from Philly, and while they’re good players, there could potentially be some chemistry blemishes there. New York typically wins games but doesn’t usually blow out opponents. The previous meetings between New York and Boston were competitive with Boston losing both but by margins of four goals and one goal. Boston has played well at home, either winning or losing by at most two goals in every game at their stadium in Medford. I’d like this more at +4.5 but at +3.5 I think it’s still a solid play. ML at +500 could be worth a sprinkle if Boston gets hot but just a sprinkle given New York is still one of the best teams in the league.
DC -1.5 – This line is silly. Montreal is good but DC is one of the best teams in the league, playing at home, with nearly everyone they had in week 1, getting a fatigued Montreal team. I don’t think it will be a blowout necessarily but I would be shocked to see Montreal cover this line. Maybe later in the season when they have their Team France stars but without them I don’t see it.
Madison +3.5 – Madison has lost to Indy just twice in the 24 total meetings between the two teams dating back to 2013. A one-goal loss in 2018 and a three-goal loss in 2019. Even after regressing last season Madison still swept Indy in their three meetings. Indy put on a show last week against an improved Detroit team but that is still 0-52 Detroit (seriously, 0-52 since 2017). Madison defeated a weak Pittsburgh by only two goals but led by as many as five goals in the fourth quarter in a game that wasn’t really ever in reach for Pittsburgh. The concern here for Madison is that they’ll be missing THREE members of their offensive line in Luo, Knoche, and Annen. They do have a terrific offensive rookie in Kai Marcus though and still have plenty of veteran talent. Madison is too prideful of a team to let Indy roll past them, they should cover; ML at +450 could be worth a sprinkle but just a sprinkle.
Minnesota -3.5 – Dallas will have a couple of reinforcements for this game in Slack and Wilder, who are two of Dallas’ better offensive players, along with a few other depth pieces. Minnesota is loaded though. They are missing one, maybe two starters but get back Vogt and Roy who they didn’t have in last week’s surprising loss to Chicago. This is a tough spot for Dallas who will have played the night before in exhausting conditions and now face a strong cross-division opponent in 90 degree weather. Dallas will put up a fight but Minnesota should cruise here.
Ottawa/Toronto u43.5 – This is straightforward: Follow the weather. It’s not insane at 9-11mph wind and 20-25% rain but that’s enough to encourage caution on hucks (deep throws/fast scores) and potentially introduce some zone looks (which tend to kill clock). Both teams are missing some offensive starters, and Toronto is young and raw enough that I doubt they’ll reach 20 goals. Last year three of their four meetings sailed over which I suspect prompted Draft Kings to drive this total up but Toronto had a lot more stars than they do now.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
Image Credit: usaultimate.org