Mexico Open Golf Picks
Mexico Open, 28th April 2022
Golfs back and we head to Vallarta, Mexico for the 2022 Mexico Open, formerly known as the Mexico Championship. This event will be hosted at Vidanta Vallarta for the next 3 years. This Greg Norman design is a 7,456 yard par 71 that features paspalum fairways, rough, and greens. The course features views of the America River as well as the Sierra Madre mountains. This should be a fun one to bet because relatively little is known about this course, and it should be fun to watch because it’s a brand new course to almost all of us.
Jon Rahm @9/2 (Outright)
Tony Finau @9/4 (Top 10 Finish)
Aaron Rai @9/2 (Top 10 Finish)
Outsider Picks: Top 10 Odds
Danny Lee @10/1
Andrew Novak @14/1
After looking at the course layout I think we’re going to see longer hitters with a distinct advantage. They appear to be wide fairways without too many threats to guard from bombers. There is also a reachable par 4 and a few longer par 5s that will only be reachable in 2 by the bombers. So, the first key stat will be driving distance.
Next up we’ll go with the fairly obvious Strokes Gained: Approach. Without knowing much about these green complexes, it is a safe bet to target guys that will have the least amount of distance to the hole to navigate. Next thing I noticed is there are 4 par 4s set to play between 450-500 yards and another at 505. I also see there are 2 par 3s that play over 200 yards and another at 195. So, I think it’s worth taking a look at par 3 scoring over 200 yards.
Based on the layout I do think we’ll see a lot of approach shots coming in from 150-175 so I’ll be adding that to my key stats. They added a lot of bunkers in preparation for this event and they are placed pretty well from the looks of it. That being said, I will be looking at sand saves because I do see that being one of the only things from preventing players going low here.
Overall, this doesn’t seem like a layout that will strike fear in the hearts of golfers, and I could see guys going low here. With it being brand new to the circuit I think we can expect a winning score around 18-20 under. Because I expect golfers to go low, the last stat I’ll put emphasis on is Birdies gained. With the distance of the par 5s I don’t think there will be a ton of eagles to be had but there are definitely some very gettable par 4s and I’m expecting we’ll see some low scores.
SG: OTT, emphasis on distance
SG: Approach, w/focus on proximity of 150-175 yards
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards
Golf Betting Picks and Preview
Image Credit: Geoffshackelford.com