AT&T Byron Nelson Golf Betting Picks, PGA Predictions

104 points
Pro-Am Golf Betting


May 12–15, 2022

The AT&T Byron Nelson is a golf tournament in Texas on the PGA Tour, currently hosted by TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, northeast of Dallas. Held in May, it is one of two PGA Tour stops in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex – the only metropolitan area to host two events

Last year the AT&T had its first appearance at TPC Craig Ranch and wow was it a score-fest. KH Lee won, finishing at 25 under, while we saw 60 players go double digit under par at the event. TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard par 72 that features not often seen Zoysia grass fairways and bentgrass greens. It’s going to be a very dramatic change in weather for players traveling here from the Wells Fargo as it’s looking like around 90-degree temperatures with some possible windy conditions (something to keep an eye on). This course played very easy last year and even with some wind I just don’t see any way it plays much harder.

Looking at the data we see that these fairways and greens are much easier to hit than tour average and the driving distance is well above tour average. We also see that Strokes Gained: Approach correlated very heavily among the top finishers last year with Strokes Gained: Putting also showing a strong correlation. If you think about it that makes perfect sense with a winning score of 25 under. I imagine they’ll do what they can to make things a bit harder this year so I would say we can look for a winning score around 19-20 under.

When we look at some key distance numbers the first one that jumps out is that we saw a whopping 34.5% of approach shots come in from over 200 yards. That is a crazy 14% above the tour average. Now, a big reason for that is that there are 3 par 3s that play over 200 yards and 3 par 5s that play over 550 yards. We’re going to factor in all 3 of those key distances as well as par 4 scoring 450-500 yards since there are 5 of them.

Next, we look at par 5 scoring. 3 of the par 5s boast an eagle rate over 2% and all 4 have a birdie rate over 38% with 2 of them at nearly 50%. All that along with a super low winning score points to par 5 scoring being a must. In an event like this you just have to play the par 5s well or you’ll be left in the dust. Along those same lines we’ll look to birdies or better (BOB) gained for our next key stat. We need guys that can go low and that can go low multiple rounds. We saw last year that multiple scores of 8 or 9 under in any given round is very realistic, we want those guys.

Key Stats

SG: Approach

SG: Putting Bentgrass Greens

Approach proximity of 200+ yards

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards

Par 5 scoring 550-600 yards

Birdies or Better Gained

Each Way Picks:

Scottie Scheffler (+1000),

Sam Burns (+2200),

Talor Gooch (+4500),

Adam Scott (+6600), 

Most Firms Paying 6+ Places


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