UFC 274 Charles Oliveira Vs Justin Gaethje Betting Predictions – degensports.net

90 points

Charles Oliveira – Submission Round 3 (Do Bronx may have secured emphatic finishes over Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler during his title reign, but it hasn’t been without struggle. Oliveira was nearly knocked out in the opening round by both men. Against an equally powerful puncher in Gaethje, the odds of Oliveira touching the canvas have to be high. Add in Gaethje’s tree chopping leg kicks, and the American owns a weapon that could slow Oliveira’s preference for high-octane, explosive striking.

One worry with Gaethje was the ease with which Chandler coaxed The Highlight back into his old ‘high guard, head down’ pocket fighting. If Oliveira can flip that switch in Gaethje, the Brazilian is a brutal body puncher which has long been a soft spot in Gaethje’s armour. Additionally, Oliveira’s exceptional clinch work and grappling will find more avenues if he can force Gaethje to shell up. Don’t write out a Gaethje uppercut off a risky, blind Oliveira takedown, though!)

Rose Namajunas – Decision (Namajunas rightly deserves to be considered the heavy favourite, but there were signs in the Weili Zhang rematch that suggest Esparza is more than a live dog in this rematch. Namajunas hit the mat five times against Zhang. If Esparza can take Thug Rose to the ground a similar number of times, her vastly superior ground control than Zhang could punish the champion.

Unfortunately for the Cookie Monster, and myself as a fan of Esparza, Rose’s advantages in this match-up are numerous. Physical and technical advantages aside, Namajunas’s pinpoint accuracy is designed to poke holes in Esparza’s limited straight-lined offence. Esparza’s questionable gas tank is another red flag in comparison to Namajunas, who has regularly reached the scorecards in five-round fights)

Michael Chandler – Decision (It breaks my heart, but Chandler carries the power to put Ferguson to sleep early. A strange call considering Ferguson’s notorious durability, but the former interim title contender has looked well behind the pace in his past three losses. As opposed to thriving in the brawls that Ferguson would create by inviting pressure, El Cucuy worryingly responds to eating punishment these days. Chandler’s conditioning issues are a worry, especially considering he has forgone the old grinding wrestling that benefited him so well in Bellator. Still, Ferguson seemingly lacks the resistance to stop Chandler handily claiming the rounds)

Ovince St. Preux – TKO Round 1 (Neither man can eat a punch, neither man can last more than a couple of rounds, and neither man has a meaningful future continuing to fight. OSP at least has been active, with a handful of his recent losses stemming from a failed move up to Heavyweight. Shogun appears to have fallen off the athletic cliff harder than OSP, with jabs forcing the former PRIDE star into a drunken tizzy)

Donald Cerrone – TKO Round 3 (Lauzon for the first-round KO has to be the safest call. Despite my brain screaming at my foolishness, I cannot look past Lauzon’s total chin deterioration or inactivity. Style-wise, Cerrone’s slow starts and Lauzon’s all-out aggression suggest an early night for Cowboy. For whatever reason, I sense that Cerrone’s wrestling and TDD could throw a spanner in the works and buy enough time for the veteran to make the necessary reads)

Randy Brown – Decision (Williams’ low kicks will continue to frustrate Brown throughout the night, yet Khaos will be punching up to the taller man throughout the night. Brown’s footwork isn’t notable, but he fights tall and will create a puzzle for Williams’ to crack if he headhunts for the fifteen minutes. Brown has made poor decisions in the past, but his strong clinch game should neutralise William’s whenever he gets inside)

Danny Roberts – Decision (The crafty Brazilian veteran operates an ultra-conservative approach that protects his 43yr old gas tank but damn does it work. Out of Southpaw, Trinaldo wafts his lead hand in front of an opponent’s face and conjures the illusion of activity for the scorecards. There is also the case of Danny Roberts’ string of knockout losses. In fairness, Roberts’ chin isn’t the issue, it’s the Bristolian’s inability to read incoming damage and in the process getting hurt unaware. In a low paced kickboxing affair, however, I just about favour Roberts to make it through a dicey affair)

Norma Dumont – Decision (Chiasson’s preference for fighting on the inside finally bit her on the arse when she met a scrappier, more experienced brawler in Raquel Pennington. Against Dumont, a solid counter-puncher in the pocket, Chiasson will be walking into the Brazilian’s strongest weapons. Sure, Chiasson could bully Dumont against the cage for three rounds, but Dumont’s boxing is more proven against higher quality competition)

Brandon Royval – Submission Round 2 (Pace is most likely to be the killer of Matt Schnell. , Schnell is the more consistent grappler on the mat and could bank rounds off top control while Royval relentlessly pursues submissions rather than returning to his feet. More likely, Royval’s wildly reckless approach will drag Schnell into fast-paced scrambles and striking exchanges which will eventually crack Schnell’s questionable chin)

Blagoy Ivanov – Submission Round 3 (Rogerio de Lima is heavy-handed, even by Heavyweight standards. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, Ivanov has never looked close to being finished over his UFC career. De Lima can wrestle relatively well, however, Ivanov’s TDD matches the Brazilian’s. When you consider that Ivanov’s gas tank far exceeds De Lima’s, it would require the Brazilian to find the punch of a lifetime)

Andre Fialho – TKO Round 2 (Just a month after his first-round pasting of Miguel Baeza, Fialho has been offered a fairly kind ‘keep busy’ fight. VanCamp is a risk-taker on the feet, which suggests a quick nap for the American, but his grappling control could well prove a nuisance on the night. A bit of a nothing fight for Fialho if VanCamp can’t take this to the mat, as expected)

Melissa Gatto – Decision (Yet another very questionable decision. Cortez should be favoured after Gatto’s TDD troubles against Sijara Eubanks. Cortez is a far more dangerous ground’n’pounder and is primed to punish Gatto’s lackadaisical approach to playing off her back. Gatto’s plus power for the division and vicious submission arsenal has me edging towards the Brazilian, though)

Kleydson Rodrigues – Decision (Rodrigues is a plus athlete with dynamite in his hands and a decently strong wrestling base. Importantly against Vergara, Rodrigues can neutralise his opponent’s offence on the feet through sniping straight shots and low kicks. Vergara is a tough, game fighter, but he will struggle to handle Rodrigues’ well-rounded skillset)

Lupita Godinez – Decision (Carnelossi’s relentless pressure and desire for a brawl may lead to her demise in this fight. Ploughing forward will create more opportunities for Godinez to shoot for a takedown. Carnelossi’s build represents a far more favourable match-up for Godinez, considering the Mexican’s slight frame for the division. If Carnelossi can keep the fight standing, however, the Brazilian’s punches tend to break opponents down)

Journey Newson – Decision (As the far superior technical fighter, I’m edging towards Newson, but his durability issues will always be a red flag. Garcia could well drag Newson into a stand’n’bang brawl that will crack the American’s chin. Who knows, who cares with this calibre of fight)