PGA Tour Tips
Date: Aug 4–7, 2022
Players will travel to Sedgefield Country Club in Guilford County, NC for the FedEx Cup regular season finale. Sedgefield CC is a Donald Ross design par 70 that will play approx. 7,131 yards. Last year was the first year since 2015 we’d seen a winning score below 20 under and it came with a crazy 6-man playoff which saw Kevin Kisner eagle the second hole to claim victory. That’s right, you heard me correctly, Kevin Kisner EAGLED a hole. That is a prime example of just how short these par 5s play. They grew the rough out a bit more than usual last year and I imagine they will do that again this year. If we have any local people on this thread, feel free to chime in if I’m off about the rough length!
The first thing we’ll touch on is the fact that Datagolf shows that course history does matter to an extent here. Looking at the field history it does seem as though there are more golfers than usual with consistently good finishes here, especially high finishers. That being said, I’ll be factoring in course history more than usual this week and will definitely be focusing on some of the golfers that always play well here.
Next let’s look at 2 things that jumped off the page in the course breakdown. Over ¼ of the approach shots will be coming in from the 150-175 range, over 7% more than the tour average. Then we see that there are 8, count them, 8 par 4s that fall in the 400-450 yard range. Needless to say, these 2 stats are going to be factored heavily into my model. Then we notice that driving distance is actually a little below tour average here and it paints a picture for us. Tons of par 4s that are 400-450 and tons of approach shots from 150-175. Add that with the slightly below tour average driving distance and this tells us guys tend to lay back off the tee here. With the way most guys on tour drive the ball these days I would have expected them to pepper the 100-150 yd range of approach shots. If the rough is grown out again we can expect to see more of the same, guys focused on hitting fairways and taking the slightly longer approach shots.
The next stat that jumped out to me a bit is the fact that 3-putts here are more than 10% higher than tour average. This can be explained in some part due to the fact the greens here are easier to hit and so there are more opportunities for guys to 3-putt, but nonetheless it looks like putting will be more important than usual again this week. With the 3-putt number higher than usual I’ll also add in SG: Putting 5-10 ft into my model.
Par 5 scoring is going to be important again this week because the 2 par 5s here play incredibly easy. The birdie rates are over 50% for both and eagle rates are 4.2% and 6.3%. A par on either of these holes is likely a lost shot on the field, but on the flip side they are very very eagle-able, just ask Kevin Kisner. I will focus on par 5 scoring 500-550 though in the model because par 5 scoring overall won’t really be super useful since literally everyone in this field will be able to get home in 2.
Lastly, I just want to throw some names out there of guys with good course history here because you should definitely at least be taking a look at them. Webb Simpson notched top 10s in 7 of his last 8 appearances. He also notched an 11th place finish the year prior to that. Bottom line, you play Webb here regardless of the number. Billy Horschel has 3 top 10s and an 11th place finish in his last 5 and keeps getting better every year. Si Woo Kim has a win and 3 more top 5s in his 6 appearances here, and we all know how Si Woo has HIS courses that he plays soooo much better than everywhere else. HVlll is a local boy of sorts hailing from Gastonia which is about an hour and a half down the road. It hasn’t really materialized for him here yet, but he does own 2 top 10s in 6 appearances.
SG: Approach w/focus on 150-175 yards
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards
Par 5 Scoring 500-550 yards
SG: Putting Bermuda
Shane Lowry, @16/1 Our Main Pick
Shane Lowry is an Irish professional golfer who plays on the European Tour and the PGA Tour. His notable achievements include winning the 2019 Open Championship, the Irish Open as an amateur in 2009, and the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Webb Simpson, @22/1
Billy Horschel, @16/1
Si Woo Kim, @22/1
Most Firms Paying 8 Places (so back ew) on big odd picks.
Image Credit: golf.com