PGA Golf Picks
The Memorial Tournament is a PGA Tour golf tournament founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus. It is played on a Nicklaus-designed course at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, a suburb north of Columbus.
Date: June 2–5, 2022
It’s fitting that on Memorial Day weekend that the next competition on the schedule is The Memorial. While the sponsors have changed frequently, the event itself has been held at Muirfield Village GC in Dublin, OH, since 1976. But this isn’t your father’s Muirfield! The course underwent extensive renovations prior to last year’s tournament, adding almost 200 yards of distance to the tips, shifting several bunkers, and building a dozen entirely new green complexes. The result was a nearly 7,500-yard, par-72 track designed to better reward accurate drives and approaches while penalizing wayward ones.
If you think such a setup would favour the best of the best … you’re right. World #1 and defending champ Jon Rahm was lapping the field by 6 strokes after 54 holes last year when he was notified after walking off 18 that he’d tested positive for Covid and would be forced to withdraw. Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa both finished at -13 the next day, with Cantlay taking home the title on the first playoff hole.
All in all, the Village with the redesign is a course requiring an all-around skillset to be victorious. With four par-4s over 470 yards and three of the four par-5s over 560, length off the tee is a boon; but with trees and bunkers everywhere, accuracy is every bit as important. Approach play is critical, though with the course playing 200+ yards longer than last week, it’s more about mid-iron accuracy than the Colonial’s short irons and wedges. And because of this, expect more missed greens, and more scrambling to save par. Datagolf rates Muirfield the Tour’s 5th-hardest around the green, and based on what I saw last year, that might be understating things. Oh, and did I mention those greens play fast? Like, really fast. The new-look course, plus its history, plus the Nicklaus name, has attracted a near major-quality field for what should be one of the best all-around challenges of the year.
Key to Success
SG: Approach (with special focus on 175+ yards). The top 7 on last year’s leader board (including Rahm) all finished in the top-12 of SG:A overall.
SG: Par 5 scoring (with a focus on 550-600 yards)
Course History, this most definitely sits in the top 8 courses on the tour.
Avoid Bogey’s at all costs
SG: Off the Tee, weighted towards Driving Accuracy
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Collin Morikawa (22/1) – #1 in the entire field at the specific distance bucket subsets that will constitute the bulk of approach shots at Muirfield. #1 in the entire field at Nicklaus designs. His putting may never not be an issue, but at least he’ll be on bentgrass, where he transforms from a bottom-30 putter on Tour to field-average. Tops in strokes gained on this course (min. 8 rounds), both gross (+3.3 SG) and vs. individual expectation (+1.7 SG).
Cameron Smith (22/1) – Over the past 6 months he leads this field in SG:A overall, and it’s not even close. Has the length to chase down the par-5s and the nearly-new greens should showcase his sublime skill with the flat stick. His course history is … spotty at best (nothing better than 65th), but he’s playing so much better now than at this point in years past that I can’t cross him off my list for that.
Shane Lowry (25/1) – Muirfield doesn’t necessarily suit the narrative of a “friendly” course for Lowry, but he ranks out in the top-10 of this week’s field on approaches from 150 yards and up. Also, excelled in all four facets of the game on route to 6th-place here last year. Short-term form is sublime with three T5 and six T20 in his last 8 PGA events.
Keegan Bradley (66/1) – Am I bold enough to predict that Keegan can outlast nine of the world’s top-12 at a course where the cream usually rises to the top? Nah, probably not, but I love him as a top-5/10/20 play this week. His “somewhat above-average” SG:A hides a huge variance: he’s borderline bad inside 100 yards but among the elite from 150 and up. His recent form is downright torrid: three top-5s and an 8th in seven starts since mid-March. And don’t look now, but over his past 100 rounds, he’s lost zero strokes putting for the first time in … forever? It might be forever.
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