Ultimate Frisbee Week 5 Tips
Week 5 Picks:
Montreal +6.5 — Montreal started the season off strong going 3-0 before getting romped in their next two games to DC and Philadelphia. The DC game was their second leg of a back-to-back, and they were missing a few starters for their Philly rematch including leading goal-scorers Chaouch and Auger-Semmar, along with starters Duquette and Tremblay-Jones. This line is too wide for a Montreal team that has hit some speed bumps but is still one of the better teams in the division and playing at home in front of one of the league’s best crowds. There is likely some recency bias in the line from New York throttling Toronto 31-17 but New York doesn’t typically blow out opponents; Toronto is just very young and inexperienced. Montreal will get back three of the aforementioned names for sure, with Chaouch listed as questionable. I expect New York to win but think it’ll be a 4-6 goal win.
I do have a couple concerns with this game. First, it’s not their normal stadium in downtown Montreal, but it’s in Sherbrooke a couple hours away. That, plus my second concern, could potentially reduce their fan showing unless they have a loyal contingent in Sherbrooke (I honestly don’t know). My second concern is the weather looks dogshit with a 90% chance of rain forecasted. Sometimes rain can be an equalizer, so I’m not necessarily saying this is a bad thing. But disciplined and skilled teams like New York will likely have less difficulty navigating troublesome conditions than other teams. I still like the Montreal line but it’s not a lock to me.
New York/Montreal u39.5 — This is a value play based on 90% chance of rain, including lightning storms. Weather is notoriously impactful on frisbees with wind being the main culprit but rain also doing its fair share of damage. I project New York getting into the high teens or low 20s at most and Montreal in the teens as well. Pittsburgh-Detroit a few weeks ago was called by the officials a few minutes before the end and apparently still paid out by DraftKings based on what I was told, so the chances of an abbreviated game also help the under.
Detroit +7.5 — This is setting up to be a do or die moment for Detroit who is now 0-53 since 2017. They had one of the hottest offseasons of any team in the league but their signings have barely played for the team and there are rumors that some of their star signings are only in the mix to try to help Detroit #BreakTheStreak, something that doesn’t bode much confidence for the team’s overall future. Nonetheless the signings are significant and Detroit will have two of those stars this weekend in Bansfield and Hecht. Detroit inexplicably played Bansfield on the d-line in his only other appearance this season and Hecht is coming off shoulder surgery recovery, so we’ll see how much impact they’ll have. Hopefully Detroit will be smart and play both on their o-line, but we’ll see. Indy unfortunately will have just about everyone so no edge there. With as large a spread as +7.5, I like Detroit to cover here, but it really comes down to how well they utilize Bansfield and how healthy Hecht is. If they go off, a sprinkle on the ML +900 isn’t the worst idea, but it’s definitely a risk against an experienced Indy squad.
DC/Toronto o40.5 — I took Boston/Toronto to go over last weekend noting the chance for a fail would be if Toronto struggled to score and got blown out. That happened and while I don’t necessarily think this will be super close, I do like Toronto to hold their own and score at least 15 goals, probably closer to 18 goals. DC would therefore need to put up 23-26 goals which I think is doable having put up 19 on one of the league’s best defenses in New York and 27 against Montreal. My one concern here is if DC plays shutdown defense and Toronto gets rekt, but Toronto playing at home, in front of a great crowd, in gorgeous weather, I think Toronto’s offense can stay lively.
Minnesota ML — Bit surprised there is no spread for this game given Minnesota swept Madison in three meetings last year and won two of three in the previous season. Sure, the game is in Madison in front of one of the league’s most loyal crowds, and I expect it to be reasonably close, but Minnesota is still a tier above Madison. Minnesota lost one of their receivers in Vogt to a rumored season-ending injury and won’t have one of their other receiving wizards in Snider, but Brandt will make his 2022 debut as an offensive hybrid after St Olaf finished second at the D-III College Championships last weekend. Meanwhile Madison should get back Meshnick, Knoche, and some other pieces but their veteran offensive handler Annen and most exciting rookie Marcus are both listed as questionable and their defensive star KPS is working through a heel injury as well. Weather looks nice overall but some decent wind which slightly favors Minnesota’s stronger complement of throwers. Madison will make things interesting, maybe take an early lead, but I think Minnesota will emerge victorious. That said, I should note that Madison can be one of the more passionate teams in the league. If it’s close in the fourth quarter then who knows who will win.
Seattle +4.5 — Seattle has surprised me with how resilient of a team they have proved to be, heading into southern California last weekend with a depleted roster and still taking talented San Diego to a two-goal game and feisty Los Angeles to a one-goal game. Now they return home to where they played admirably against an upstart Colorado team, losing by just three goals the same number of weeks ago. The last meeting between Seattle and Portland was in week 1 in Portland where Portland put up 29 goals on Seattle and won by five. Seattle tends to play better at home, and they’ll be hungry to earn their first win of the season after several close heart-breaking losses.
Seattle will get their crack at an upset victory against a Portland team lacking three offensive starters in Doi, Lee, Friedman, and a defensive starter in Hatchett. Seattle will also have reinforcements: One of ultimate’s strongest receivers Matt Rehder will make his 2022 debut. While Rehder has not played in the AUDL since 2019, if he is even just a shell of his former self he will be a formidable threat downfield. Rehder previously played for Seattle in 2016 so this is a bit of a homecoming for him and I expect he’ll have a big game. Seattle will also start Adam Simon, a veteran handler who scored seven assists against Portland, and Declan Miller, a rookie off to a speedy start with the second most receiving yards/game in the league. Miller is the only player in the top ten for receiving yards/game to have more throwing yards/game than his receiving yards/game, a trend that suggests a very balanced player who can throw just as well as he can catch. They will also get Zeppelin Raunig back after missing the LA game; Raunig has been on a bit of a rollercoaster statistically but he is one of Seattle’s more athletic players (case in point). Honestly, Seattle isn’t really missing any major pieces except Akyuz and Brown, but Simon and Rehder should fit in smoothly for them.
To Portland’s credit, they will get back one of their strongest players in Raphy Hayes who they missed last week in Oakland, and will still have their team MVP Marx, who had a sensational 5-goal 7-assist 1-block performance against Oakland. But with their missing players, the game being in Seattle, and Seattle getting reinforcements, +4.5 is too wide of a line. I think Seattle could make this close and a sprinkle on the ML at +500 wouldn’t be the worst idea. Weather also looks mediocre in the low 50s and a coin flip chance of rain. I think such conditions favor Seattle, whose strength is their handler corps and chemistry, while Portland will have to navigate missing so many starters. At the very least I don’t expect Seattle to get beaten into a pulp, so a backdoor cover also remains possible should Portland build a lead.
Colorado +2 — Colorado finally returns to action after nearly three weeks off and their reward is a matchup with one of the hottest teams in the league. Salt Lake City is 3-0 having scored 24, 25, and a whopping 32 goals in their three games this season. Colorado isn’t too shabby themselves though, 2-0 beating Seattle by a few goals and then surviving Portland in double OT in Portland, and will face Salt Lake City at home. I projected this line to come out SLC -2.5 based on SLC’s high-scoring performances but I think the true line should be Colorado -1.5. Both teams beat up on Seattle but SLC’s other games were middle of the pack San Diego and weaker LA whereas Colorado faced off against one of the division’s strongest teams in Portland.
Matchup-wise Colorado looks much more complete than SLC, missing only Atkins who will be at D-I College Championships this weekend with the University of Colorado. (Landesman is another star with U of Colorado, but Landesman hasn’t played all season.) Meanwhile, SLC won’t have Connole or Martin and lost Selfridge to a season-ending injury. Kerr and Merrill remain two of the league’s best offensive weapons, but they’ll be matched up well by Colorado’s physical defenders. The league’s best thrower Jon Nethercutt remains in Colorado’s lineup and their best receiver Finer is active as well. I think the game will be close and could ultimately go either way so the spread is safer, but ML +180 definitely has a lot of value for the team who should be the slight favorite.
Colorado/SLC u46.5 — Huge division matchup and I expect each to bring their A-game. Colorado has a physical, defensive presence and Salt Lake City has plenty of athleticism. A comparable matchup would be Colorado vs Portland which ended up at 47 goals and that had double overtime. There is a chance for overtime here so that hurts the under a bit but I think both teams will play lights out defensively and keep this game in the high teens or low 20s. Plus looks like could be a decent amount of wind which is more likely to cause turnovers, extend points, and thus kill clock and lower the total.
Pittsburgh/Tampa o35.5 — Two of the league’s weakest teams go toe-to-toe in St Petersburg, sporting a combined record of 1-6 to start the year, with the lone victory coming against perennially winless Detroit. The last meeting between these two last season was an 18-15 Tampa victory but Tampa had far more experienced defensive pieces. Neither team’s offense is good enough to make this a shootout, but also neither team’s defense is good enough to make this a gritty slugfest. I project both teams to get into the upper teens, maybe low 20s and surpass a low total. Weather looks nice and calm, though a bit hot, both of which should help drive the total up (no wind should make scoring easier, and hotter weather should give offense an extra edge against a reactionary defense).
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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