Golf Predictions
Date: May 26–29, 2022
The Colonial National Invitation, titled for sponsorship reasons as the Charles Schwab Challenge since 2019, is a professional golf tournament in Texas on the PGA Tour, played annually in May in Fort Worth at Colonial Country Club, which organizes the event.
As the home of the longest-running non-major on Tour (since 1946) it’s perhaps no surprise that Fort Worth’s Colonial Country Club is one of the PGA’s shorter courses, tipping out around 7,200 yards at a par 70. But despite its lack of distance this is one of the more challenging layouts on the schedule, thanks to (in no particular order) unusually narrow fairways, smaller-than-average greens, dozens of strategically placed bunkers, numerous doglegs, and of course those swirling Texas winds.
With just one reachable par 5 (of two total) and all four par 3’s playing over 190, players will have to make their hay on the par 4’s. Fortunately, unlike last week’s 500-yard+ behemoths, five of Colonial’s check in at 425 or less, with three more in the 425-450 yard range. That means a lot of wedges and short irons into these greens from players skilled enough to keep their tee shots in the fairway, which can translate into a fair number of birdie chances. It’s the “in the fairway” part of that equation that can prove tricky, though, as said fairways are not just narrow but craftily designed so that even average hitters will have to club down a few times a round.
Areas around the green aren’t as penal as at Southern Hills, so having an ability to reliably get up-and-down from misses will offer some advantage (see: past champs Kevin Na and Justin Rose). But in general, the preponderance of short approaches means that if you’re having to channel Chi-Chi hole after hole, you’re likely missing too many greens to seriously contend anyway.
In rough order of importance, the skillsets to key in on this week are:
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SG: Approach (with special focus on 100-150 and 150-175 yards)
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SG: Off the Tee, weighted towards driving accuracy
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SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
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Opportunities Gained
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Course History (Colonial is one of the ~10 courses on Tour where this weights most heavily)
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SG: Around-the-Green
Our Picks:
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Jordan Spieth (12/1 FD): Some courses have horses; Spieth is Colonial’s American Pharaoh. Over the past decade he has more finishes in the top-2 at Colonial (4) than outside the top 10 (3). With phenomenal results at tough courses, a hometown crowd, and both JT and Zalatoris coming off an emotional five hours on Sunday, Spieth deserves more win equity than this.
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Vik Hovland (22/1 MGM): It’s easy to fixate on his two mediocre majors this year and forget that heading into Augusta his prior five results were 4th, 2nd, 9th, 33rd, 18th. Even after his recent pedestrian run he’s still the best in this field from 150-175 yards per Datagolf, and since he should be able to club down he should hit enough greens that his horrid ATG play won’t hurt him too much. Finished T23 in his only outing here.
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Talor Gooch (41/1 FD): Since emerging from Covid his approach play has gone from barely above-average to among the world’s elite, especially from 100-150 yards out. With above-average distance and accuracy off the tee, it’s worth speculating on a spike week on the greens. T14 here last year.
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Tom Hoge (70/1 DK, down from 100/1 at the open, but I still like this number): Another guy who’s been absolutely striping his irons of late, culminating in a whopping +8 SG:A at last week’s PGA. His OTT accuracy is way above average as well. Yes, he’s missed the last two cuts here, but with three T5’s already this season his recent form is head and shoulders above years past.
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Doug Ghim (180/1 DK): Do I think he wins? No. But this number is twice what it should be. When Ghim contends, it’s by finding fairways, flushing his short irons, and being at a track where all that other stuff doesn’t matter much. If only we were at a course where that might be a winning strategy this weeke… hey, wait a minute! Pulled a T14 here in ‘21 as well.
Other names of interest: Chris Kirk (50/1), Gary Woodland (55/1), Mav McNealy (70/1), Patton Kizzire (150/1).
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