Ultimate Frisbee Week 3
Week 4 Picks:
Boston -2.5 — Toronto played valiantly last weekend, upsetting Ottawa in a high-scoring shootout despite being forecasted as one of the worst teams in the league this season with their significant roster turnover in the offseason. This will be Toronto’s first US opponent since the pandemic. Boston has been underwhelming to start the season, barely surviving Philly then dropping three straight against Ottawa, Montreal, and New York. Could this be Toronto’s chance to continue their momentum, pull out all the stops, and upset Boston?
…..No. They’re gonna get murdered tbh. This is perhaps the best Boston active roster we’ve seen yet. They have both star receivers in Cable and Johnson. They have their defensive studs in McCann and Wariner. Jeff Graham is coming off a great game, mossing one of the league’s best players despite being 42 years old. Toronto should have most of their pieces, but they are young and raw. Boston is starving for a victory after dropping three straight close ones. There is a little bit of wind which can serve as an equalizer but at a short -2.5 spread I’m not concerned.
Carolina -1.5 — Carolina are the defending league champs who got better in the offseason. Austin went 6-6 last year in a weaker division. Austin isn’t awful, and this won’t be a blowout, but -1.5 is a hilariously small line for Carolina to cover. Look, DraftKings normally puts out good lines. But this is one of those lines where they fall asleep at the end of the day, wake up at 11:52 with their assignment due at midnight, and just smash some shit together. I am guessing DK sees both teams undefeated and Austin covering their spreads whereas Carolina failed to cover their spreads. But Austin has played an underwhelming Dallas team while Carolina didn’t play like half their starters the past couple games. Carolina still won’t have everyone, but they have the big bodies able to match up with Austin and the throwers to outpace them. Carolina also has superior depth which matters in a game that could reach 90 degrees and sunny.
Atlanta ML — Atlanta last played April 30 and will have had three weeks to prepare for this game. Normally rust could be a concern for a team off that long, but Atlanta is one of the best teams in the league, they’ll be fine and hungry to get back to playing. This is just a really bad spot for Austin. You play the defending champs in 90 degree sunny heat then drive 6+ hours to play another excellent team in 85 degree sunny heat. Atlanta won’t have Parker Bray (good thrower) or Khalif El-Salaam (athletic Team USA defender) but Michael Fairley and Brett Hulsmeyer will be making their 2022 debuts and these are massive, hulking dudes that eat rocks for breakfast and will bully Austin’s workhorses. Bobby Ley and John Stubbs, two excellent throwers, will also be making their 2022 debuts this game. Austin might hang with Atlanta at first but fatigue will catch up to them as the game wears on in the heat. Atlanta should cruise.
Portland -2.5 — These two teams played in the preseason with the result a 23-23 tie (time constraints so couldn’t play overtime to decide a winner). Oakland played better than expected in their season opener two weeks ago falling by two to last year’s division champ San Diego. Nonetheless, at full strength Portland outclasses this Oakland team. Oakland catches a break with Portland missing two of their stars in Hayes and Hatchett, but Portland still has a talented group and will be looking to take care of business after a heartbreaker home loss to Colorado two weeks ago. Oakland is currently only rostering 18 active players out of a possible 20, which makes very little sense given it’s a home game and they should have plenty of people to fill in. I’m guessing they just haven’t decided yet which two to fill out their roster but something to maybe keep an eye on. Temperature should be gorgeous but a bit of wind to contend with. Oakland has one of the division’s best throwers in Norden, but there’s a bit of a dropoff after him. I think it could be a close game in the first half until Portland figures them out and pulls away in the second half.
Carolina/Austin o37.5 — I don’t love this line with the heat and Carolina still missing a few players, but both teams have competent offenses with skilled downfield threats. Carolina is getting back one of their best throwers in Yanuck and they have some of the best receivers in the league. I think Carolina should be able to push into the low 20s and as long as Austin doesn’t implode this should go over.
Atlanta/Austin o36.5 — This is straightforward. Excellent offensive team (Atlanta) playing at home against a potentially gassed road team (Austin). Atlanta should break into the low 20s while Austin should be prideful enough to still put up 17-18 goals and clear the over.
Seattle/San Diego o39.5 — Seattle has been blown out in two of their three games this season, allowing 29 and 32 goals. Their outlier was a homestand against Colorado making their league debut. On the road in San Diego, with a thin roster, Seattle simply doesn’t have the defensive pieces needed to clamp down on San Diego’s talented offense. San Diego scored 22 goals on a better LA team last weekend in a rivalry ish game. I project San Diego to hit 24-26 goals so Seattle only needs to hit 16 for the over to hit which I think they should be able to do.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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