Ultimate Frisbee Week 2
Week 2 Picks:
Detroit +8.5 If you’ve been following my picks for a while you’ve seen me talk about the gem that is Detroit. They are literally the greatest team in the entire league if you solely look at losses. Their last win was over five years ago. Since then they are 0-51. I am not kidding. They literally have had three straight winless seasons and have a social media campaign to #BreakTheStreak. The best part is they had originally set a league record for longest consecutive winless games of 28 in 2014-15, won some games, then broke their record at the now-51 losses. They are the Detroit of Detroit sports teams.
But as with every great narrative arc, redemption is in the cards. Detroit somehow had a terrific offseason (I say somehow because frisbee does not have a draft, the players have to actually move there on their own volition) and picked up the 2019 College POTY, an elite division 3 player, and a few elite club players (club being the premier division of ultimate that runs concurrently with pro). Of course, none of those players actually played last week and they lost 17-13 in a rainy home opener against Pittsburgh. BUT this week a few of them are active. Not all but a few.
Could it be enough to get their first win of the season? Maybe. Indy has most of their players but they lost their top player to an ACL tear and won’t have one of their better handlers in Brett Matzuka. They still have a solid roster, but they’re definitely one of the weaker teams in the division and Detroit no doubt smells opportunity here. In any case, +8.5 is a giant spread, and I would probably take this down to +6.5 before reducing my unit size.
Detroit ML +1300 I’m not going to track this in my official records but I wanted to put it here because +1300 is nuts for what should be closer to +400 or +500. Definitely not the worst idea to throw a few bucks on this. They’re gonna win a game this season it’s just a question of when.
Pittsburgh +6.5 This is a reactionary line after Pittsburgh got shellacked by Chicago last weekend. Madison is a shell of their former Championship self. They do have a big physical presence and picked up a solid rookie in Kai Marcus, but Pittsburgh also re-signed an elite handler after it initially looked like he might not play this season and will be debuting Ian Engler from Boston. I would play this comfortably down to +4.5 or maybe even +3.5 before reducing my unit size.
Pittsburgh ML +750 Same reasoning with Detroit ML. This is a winnable game for Pittsburgh and should be closer to +300 or +400.
Colorado/Portland u48.5 The under on this gargantuan line is a no-brainer. Portland scored 29 on Seattle because it’s Seattle who has no defence and finished last in the division last year. Colorado is a much better team, very physical. This will be a tight battle between two teams likely battling for the division title. Additionally the weather is mediocre, high 40s and rainy, which tend to drive totals lower. The slight concern here would be overtime potential but OT should only add a couple extra goals at most imo.
Colorado +2.5 This one’s a little risky given we haven’t seen Colorado play yet whereas Portland has had a couple games, but roster-wise they’re stacked. Of course, so is Portland, but in a way that helps the Colorado spread given they’ll take it seriously wanting to prove themselves against the best. I see this as a close battle, slightly less than a coin flip given Portland has played a couple games in their stadium already and Colorado will be playing the second game of a back to back. The ML at +165 has some merit.
Minnesota ML -140 Both Minnesota and Chicago have been two of the better teams in this division in recent years. In last year’s divisional final Minnesota was leading Chicago late and choked away like a three or four goal lead in the final five minutes, it was wild. Minnesota has now had the offseason to think about that game and they get Chicago in their season and home opener. Both rosters are good but Minnesota’s is a step above getting key reinforcements from Winnipeg that they didn’t have in recent years due to covid travel restrictions. Chicago will put up a fight but I would honestly be quite surprised if Chicago won this game. I would probably not go above Minnesota -2.5, though.
Minnesota/Chicago o35.5 I have no idea why this total is this low given all four of their meetings in 2021 went over. Both teams have crisp offenses with skilled handlers and receivers. I don’t necessarily think it’s gonna be a super high-scoring game but it should definitely get into the high teens or low 20s. There is a bit of wind, 15 mph, but to go under 35.5 the throwers would have to really be off their game and I don’t see it for a game of this importance.
Philadelphia/NY u42.5 This is pretty simple, weather is trash in New Rochelle with 20+ mph winds and cold rain. Philly’s breakout handler from last week, Jordan Rhyne, is out and they won’t have one of their defensive handlers in Arcata either. Not the conditions you want to be missing good disc throwers. That said they still have the athleticism to limit NY’s damage. I don’t think this breaks 40 to be honest.
Pittsburgh/Madison o36.5 Madison is a good defensive team but this is a really low total. Weather looks great and Madison loves to show up for their home crowd. I also expect Pittsburgh to rebound offensively after an atrocious game against Chicago in the wind.
Detroit/Indy o36.5 A little risky here with Detroit not typically scoring a ton of points but it’s indoors which typically helps overs as offenses don’t have wind to worry about. The one concern would be if Detroit totally outplays Indy, then they could struggle to score points. But I’m not too worried about that given Detroit’s history, they should still have some gaps that Indy can slice through.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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