MLB Daily Picks
Todays Tips:
Aaron Judge +360 (as of 1AM EST), 7 PM EST – Judge has been absolutely lighting the world on fire lately batting .375 with 6 homers in his last 7 games. On the season, he’s got about equal splits vs RHP and LHP (and he’s crushing both of them). Kikuchi is on the mound for TOR, and although he’s only 2/9 in his career vs Kikuchi, Judge’s two hits were homers. Kikuchi hasn’t adjusted well to the move to Toronto thus far, sporting a 5.52 ERA in 14.2 innings. Even at his best, which as we saw with his all star campaign last year, Kikuchi has never been the best at preventing home runs. Judge also loves to hit em out against the Blue Jays, and at Rogers Centre in particular (17 homers in 100 ABs in his career there). Right handed batters hit roughly 10% more home runs at Rogers Centre than the average stadium, which is a significant boost. This is easily my favorite play of the day.
Jose Abreu (Odds not available at time of post, will update), 7:40 PM EST – This guy crushes the Cubs (.355 lifetime avg w/ 11 HRs in 141 ABs), and he really crushes Kyle Hendricks (.591 avg with 1 HR in 22 ABs). At Wrigley, Abreu is a career .311 hitter with 7 HRs in 74 ABs. Park factors at Wrigley are essentially negligent for right handed hitters (only 2% less frequent than average ballpark). Hendricks has been getting shelled lately and against right handed batters in particular. Love this spot for Abreu to break out of his slump.
Nolan Arenado (odds not available at time of post, will update) 1 PM EST – Nolan has been one of the best hitters in baseball so far this year batting .359 with 6 homers, and has a favorable matchup vs the struggling Kris Bubic today. Bubic is a lefty, and Arenado crushes lefties (.317 career average). Arenado has only faced Bubic 5 times in his career, but has 3 hits and 1 home run despite the small sample size. Bubic has been abysmal this year allowing a 10.50 ERA in 12 innings, as well as 3 home runs. Although Kaufmann Stadium allows 16% fewer home runs to right handed hitters than average, this has never seemed to bother Arenado, as he has a .400 average with 5 homers in just 30 career ABs there. I expect him to see the ball very well in this matchup.
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