NFL Draft 2022 Movers
Looking forward to the draft. I think the fact that nobody really seems to know how Thursday will shake out makes it, thats why theres probably some real money to be made this week.
Some of my picks:
Bengals to take a DB with their first pick +300
Giants to take an OL with their first pick
Desmond Ridder to be taken in the first round -120
Steelers to take a QB with their first pick +190
The value on the more predictable stuff is usually long gone by the time draft day rolls around. Try to avoid betting on heavy favorites and blind longshots and instead look for reasonable potential outcomes that are at decent plus odds (think, +125 to +400 range). And you can’t trust any rumors that you hear at this point in the process.
The draft is inherently very unpredictable, and that goes doubly so for this year’s event. It lacks elite talent but has a ton of mid-range depth, so teams can go a lot of different directions all across the 1st round. And remember, it only takes 1 team out of 32 with a divergent draft board to really screw things up.
Our Picks:
Total 1st round Pac-12 players over 4.5 @ +145
Thibodeaux (Oregon), o/u is 4.5
London (USC), o/u is 10.5, -2500 (96.2% implied) to go top 32
McDuffie (Washington), o/u is 16.5, -1600 (94.1% implied) to go top 32
Lloyd (Utah), o/u is 19.5, -1200 (92.3% implied) to go top 32
Gordon (Washington), o/u is 32.5, EVEN (50% implied) to go top 32
Jackson (USC), no o/u, +150 (40% implied) to go top 32
Consider adding a partial hedge with Lloyd over 19.5 (we actually like this on its own, anyways). You could easily hit both bets, and out of the 5 whom we believe go Round 1 (KT, London, McDuffie, Lloyd, Gordon), we think he’s mostly like to screw this up by slipping, due to off-ball LB being devalued across the league, and the supposed rise of Quay Walker at the same position.
Best NFL Drafts Picks and Predictions
Image Credit: nytimes.com