Marvin Vettori – Decision (This is an incredibly difficult pick to make, despite the overwhelming verdict pointing towards a Vettori victory. Vettori is a fabulous athlete, who can adhere to a game plan and grind out a decision over five rounds. While the Italian doesn’t possess the same power or volume in the wrestling department as say a Derek Brunson, he only needs the one takedown each round. Against Jack Hermansson, Vettori impressed with his sweltering top control that refused to allow the grappling expert to get back to his feet, let alone search for a submission. Holland’s strong scrambles and TDD are being overlooked after his mental capitulation last month, but he will more than likely be able to keep this fight standing for extended periods. Moreover, Vettori’s bull-rushing striking, feeling the need to consistently throw and keep an opponent backed up, plays directly into the hands of Holland’s liquid counter-striking. Vettori may be able to slip the jab more often than not, but when he closes the distance, he will be susceptible to Holland’s intercepting elbows that. If it hadn’t been for the last-minute nature of the call-up, I’d favour Holland in this bout)
Value Pick: Vettori by Submission Round 1 @ 7.00
Arnold Allen – Decision (Both men are excellent prospects and a victory here will finally earn them an overdue promotional push from the UFC. Allen has exhibited a continually sharpened skill-set over each subsequent fight, but it is his freak work rate that will prove king. Yusuff possesses fearsome heavy hands, and he was able to patiently out-strike Andre Fili for two rounds. Unfortunately, Yusuff’s volume falls off a cliff by the third round. If Allen’s chin can weather an early storm, the Brit should be able to pour huge amounts of pressure in the second half of the fight)
Julian Marques – TKO Round 2 (Alvey has the tools to win this, but he frequently enters the octagon with some of the worst game plans in UFC history. Patiently operating off of his back-foot from the get-go, Marquez will have rein over the pace and range of the fight. While Smilin’ can still crack with his left hand (wobbling Da Un Jung a couple of times), Marquez has so far shown a wonderful chin. If, as expected, Alvey backs himself onto the cage, Marquez will be able to throw his best work. Clubbing overhands, dirty boxing on the inside and regular threats of submissions)
Mackenzie Dern – Decision (Ansaroff has the technical ability and experience to win this bout with ease, if not for the factor of momentum. Ansaroff possesses the TDD to prevent Dern’s bullying wrestling, as well as a ridiculously good jab to pepper the Brazilian for fifteen minutes. Still, Dern is riding a huge wave of momentum (against pretty tame opposition) and Ansaroff is returning from a maternity layoff. Dern’s heavy hands, although uncoordinated, could catch Ansaroff off-guard and make the transition to the mat much smoother for Dern)
Mike Perry – Decision (Both men hit hard and both are extremely durable. While Rodriguez is an accurate power puncher, his corpse-like hand speed may be lost on the scorecards under Perry’s voluminous flurries. Sure, you can never guarantee what version of Perry will enter the octagon, but his move to Daniel Valverde at least indicates he is getting back on the right path. Perry will struggle to shoot on Rodriguez and offer another look, but I’m not sure Rodriguez has the ability to keep Perry on the end of his straight shots)
Joe Solecki – Submission Round 3 (Miller, the gatekeeper that’s been around since the dawn of man, always has the chance to secure a freak first-round submission as has been the game plan in the past few years. Solecki seems to be a younger, more athletically gifted Miller, however. After an early back-and-forth, Solecki can rely on his deep gas tank and punish the veteran. Solecki’s strikes in the clinch are thoroughly underrated, and by targeting the body he will drain whatever is left in the legs of Miller)
Mateusz Gamrot – Decision (Holtzman is an honest grinder who can deliver serious punishment from the clinch. Unfortunately for Holtzman, it is difficult to see how he can battle with Gamrot over the range of the fight, as the Poles’ jab rarely misses the mark. Worse yet, Gamrot’s bread and butter wrestling is primed to expose the holes in Holtzman’s TDD)
Ignacio Bahomondes – Decision (Makdessi will undoubtedly continue to follow the same game plan as of the past few years, wheeling around the border of the octagon on his back foot and refusing to commit to any exchanges. Using his sidekick as a jab, Makdessi is technically clean but he is more than aware of his lack of durability. Bahamondes has almost five inches in height, and while he will be killing himself to make weight, the Chilean has so far looked impeccable on the feet. Bahomendes hasn’t exactly been fighting killers and his TDD looks suspect already, but Makdessi isn’t the fighter to expose this)
Yorgan De Castro – TKO Round 2 (Lord, please don’t allow this to be a fight where both men gas out in a minute and we have to watch three rounds of exhausted grappling. Former strongman, Jarjis Danho, really shouldn’t be in the UFC anymore considering he has never won in the organisation and hasn’t fought for five years. Record aside, Danho was incapable of throwing more than single potshots back in the day, and only found success in using his strength to rough opponents up against the cage. De Castro has been a massive disappointment since his first-round knockout over Justin Tafa, but the clean counter-striker should have more than enough technical skill to find the stoppage)
Jack Shore – Decision (Shore is a slept-on grappling monster at Bantamweight that exudes maturity despite his youth. On the mat, Shore has a knack of sneaking his way onto opponent’s backs and punishing them for extended periods. Moreover, Shore’s measured striking is enough to keep opponent’s from simply pressing him all fight. Hunter, however, is a physical specimen with heavy hands and a powerful wrestling base. This will be Shore’s first real test in the UFC in regards to whether his technical ability is enough to manage a plus athlete)
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