UFC Kamaru Usman Vs Gilbert Burns Betting Predictions


UFC Kamaru Usman Vs Gilbert Burns Betting Predictions & Tips

If you were to draw up the perfect fighter to upset Usman, they would have to have powerful hands and stellar jiu jitsu. They would need 5 round experience and a sound knowledge of their opponent. That’s Gilbert Burns.

We think this is going to be Kamaru Usman’s toughest fight, for sure. Burns has got the ground game, he’s a high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner, he’s got good striking and he’s been knocking dudes out. However, Usman is an intelligent fighter. He’s got pressure and cardio for days. He’s got a gas tank like no other and we do believe he can outwrestle Burns. We think he could wrestle him and neutralize his jiu-jitsu. His top game is really, really good, especially up against the fence. If he can get him pinned up against the fence where he’s able to control his opponent’s hips, we think he’s got it. Burns’ striking is fast. That dude is explosive. He may not have the reach Kamaru does, but he’s explosive and you saw it against Tyron Woodley. We think Kamaru Usman can do it… he’s a great champ. He holds the title very well. So, we’re going for Usman To Win By Decision @ 2.30.

Value Bets:

Burns To Win By Submission @ 7.00

Burns To Win By Submission Round 2 @ 23.00

Phillip Rowe By KO @ 3.50

Miranda Maverick By Decision @ 2.50

Chris Gutierrez By KO @ 4.50

Mallory Martin By Decision @ 2.20

Belal Muhammad By Submission @ 7.00

Rodolfo Vieira By Round 1 Submission @ 2.20

Julian Marquez vs Maki Pitolo NOT to go the distance @ 1.57

Ricky Simon By Decision @ 1.73

Ian Heinisch By Round Two KO @ 22.00

Maycee Barber By Round 3 KO @ 25.00

Kamaru Usman By Round 4 KO @ 18.00

Main Event Fight Breakdown:

Standing: Usman has a good high guard to deal with explosive power like we saw in the Woodley fight. Technical striker with the reach advantage. However, we expect Gilbert who has the power advantage and very aware of Usman’s striking tendencies to get crafty and play more games on the feet. Usman won’t finish Burns on the feet, but Burns can definitely catch Kamaru. Slight edge to Burns

Clinch: Usman’s bread and butter. Does a fantastic job on the fence at controlling opponents and not getting hit. Head positioning is at an elite level, and for those who grapple know head positioning is critical. Burns has the ability to reverse and threaten standing guillotines and potential kimuras, but he’s not at the Usman level. Edge to Usman

Ground: Usman looks to establish and immobilize from top position to land damage. Burns looks to cause damage, get to the back, and choke. We have a BJJ World Champ with some of the best BJJ in the game who is going to constantly hunt submissions. Edge to Burns

Takedowns: Burns is not taking Usman down. Usman’s wrestling background and elite level clinch is going to be like pushing a car with the e-brake on. Maybe in a transition he can hit a sacrifice throw or a trip, but he is not double legging Usman without perfect timing, execution, and Usman making a mistake. Usman generally wants to take people down, but that is against resisting opponents who want nothing to do with their back on the mat. Gilbert won’t be using all of his energy defending takedowns when it’s his world down there. His ability to sweep and reverse positions is a gamble he is going to be willing to take instead of tiring out his arms with underhooks defending takedowns. That is even if Kamaru attempts to take Gilbert down. Edge to Usman

Submissions: Not much to say here. Usman is essentially never submitting Burns. Burns can catch Kamaru standing or on the ground. Edge to Burns

Knockouts: As described in the standing portion, Burns has the power. Usman may be able to pour on if he disengages from the clinch, but we think Burns’ chin at 170 is too tough for Usman to crack. Burns has demonstrated serious power at 55 and 70. Usman has never been dropped from what I remember though. Slight edge to Burns

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