Jan Blachowicz – TKO Round 3 (Blachowicz is a rarely composed fighter at 205, who is capable of trading with Tex in the pocket but will likely frustrate from distance with his jab. While Tex’s chin has held up incredibly well since Gus damn near killed him back in 2017, the Brazilian was on wobbly legs against Thiago Santos. With Jan’s greater focus on counter-striking, it could be a shot that an elderly Tex doesn’t see that switches off the lights. On the mat, there is an interesting dynamic. Teixeira has continued to prove himself one of the greatest top threats. The scattering of Smith’s teeth over the mat is statement enough. It wasn’t that long ago that Jan was rag-dolled by Patrick Cummins with a gameplan that Tex could technically replicate. Unfortunately, Teixeira is also one foot into the retirement home and cannot rely on speed to close the distance. Unless Blachowicz is conned by Tex’s durability and closes the distance himself, the Brazilian’s physical deficiencies will stop him from finding the necessary takedowns)
Petr Yan – Submission Round 4 (Power will prove king in this match. In almost every fight during his UFC tenure, Yan has stunned his opponent. When combined with consistent low kicks, fired against an opponent notorious for switching stances, Sandhagen needs to earn Yan’s respect early. Of course, Sandhagen’s penchant for bodywork (liver shots/intercepting knees) creates an interesting dynamic considering Yan’s high guard. If Sandhagen pours out a constant stream of volume, his creativity creates a huge hurdle for Yan to close the distance. The wrestling differential will likely prove the difference, however. Even if Sandhagen pours out an insane volume to maintain distance against Yan, the Russian’s incredibly durability can be relied upon in dire circumstances. By the later rounds, Yan’s wrestling will emerge with Sandhagen’s tendency to offer his back and neck eventually stinging him)
Islam Makhachev – Decision (As much as I would love a Hooker win, Makhachev is as direct a counter as he will find. Hooker’s extended combinations and powerful yet loose knees create opportunities for the Dagestani to shoot on the hips. Additionally, Hooker’s timid approach on the feet against Chandler could well re-appear against a similar wrestling threat in Makhachev. There is the possibility that the ultra-defensive, risk-averse Makhachev allows Hooker to immediately set a furious early pace – but it wouldn’t be a safe backing)
Alexander Volkov – TKO Round 3 (Volkov’s takedown defence isn’t perfect, but the Russian has consistently proven his ability to get back to his feet. Against a grinder like Tybura who looks to run out the clock laying in top control, Volkov can effectively deny the Pole his main path to victory. On the back of Volkov’s crisp jab and chipping low kick, the Russian will eventually set up the big head kick that finishes the fight against a rugged Tybura)
Khamzat Chimaev – TKO Round 3 (Despite all the warning signs, I am admittedly fully aboard the Chimaev hype train for the time being. BEWARE, however. After a terrible bout of COVID, attempts to retire and troubles on the scales – Chimaev may be physically and mentally unprepared for Saturday’s fight. Still, Jingliang’s tendency to be bullied by bigger fighters is too difficult to overlook. Chimaev is a powerhouse at the weight and if fully fit (aside from ring rust) should crush this match-up)
Magomed Ankalaev – Decision (This isn’t a clear-cut result just yet, Ankalaev’s low output and lack of dynamism could be quickly read by Oezdemir – but the Russian’s technical superiority should offer him the edge. It would take Oezdemir to frustrate from the outside, forcing Ankalaev to test himself on the feet, if the Swiss fighter is to have his hand raised. If Oezdemir ends up on his back, a beating will be delivered similar to DC’s whoopin’ back in 2018)
Amanda Ribas – Decision (A well-rounded fighter, Ribas’ could simply opt to close the distance with her furious hooks before body-locking Jandiroba to the mat. Ribas has proven her ability to control opponents from the top, but is it worth the risk after Jandiroba proved her submission chops after snapping Kanako Murata’s arm off her back? Ribas’ superior physicality and crisp jab may well prove the difference in an even affair)
Zubaira Tukhagov – Decision (Tukhugov is a freakish athlete with heavy hands and an exceptional wrestling threat, but his aimless direction in the octagon leaves opponents with opportunities to get back into the fight. Ramos hasn’t yet shown the ability to employ a consistent game plan. Worse yet for Ramos, it is unlikely he can deal with the larger Featherweights. Not only will Ramos struggle to showcase his dangerous offensive grappling, he will also fail to stuff Tukhugov’s takedowns)
Albert Duraev – Submission Round 2 (If Kopylov can keep his fellow Russian off the mat, Kopylov’s voluminous power-punching will expose Duraev’s luke-warm boxing. We are yet to see how Duraev reacts when unable to dictate the pace of a fight, and I’m banking that he panics. Unfortunately, Duraev’s power wrestling will likely prove too much)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos – TKO Round 1 (Zaleski has reigned in much of the explosiveness that made him such a threat on his seven-fight streak throughout 2016-2019. Patient single-shots, however, still carry the freakish power that made Zaleski’s name. With Saint-Denis never having faced power on such a scale, it will likely halt the Frenchman’s aggressive pursuit of takedowns that served him well on the regionals)
Michal Oleksiejczuk – Decision (Damn, this could be either be a barn-burner or the ugliest fight in recent memory. I’m opting for the latter. Gamzatov has notoriously struggled with his gas tank, which will be severely drained if Gamzatov opts to ground and grind out the Pole. The pocket-sized power puncher isn’t woeful off his back and should be able to take control of the fight if he gets through a torrid first round)