Hornets -6 @ Magic
Line opening Hornets -6. We was expecting this line to be around -9, seems like the books are giving the Magic a lot of credit for beating the Knicks in a game where they were 12 point underdogs. Hornets coming off a bad OT beat. Led by around 10 at about the 5 minute mark. Some questionable coaching decisions in the hornets game IMO. Magic have an average point differential this year so far of -15.5. If you take out the upset win against the knicks they have been losing by an average of 22.67 points/game. Lamelo in the last game was in foul trouble the first half and then played some questionable minutes in the second half, finishing only with 33 minutes. Now, we could see this being a let down spot for the Hornets. It seems that they can get a bit lazy on defense at times, their shooters have been very hot and got to cool down eventually we would think but we have to roll with Charolette here -6
Wizards @ Celtics -4
Line opening -4.5/-4 Celts depending on your book. Tatum has certaintly started to heat up the last two games after a bit of a rough start. It seems the books are giving the wizards a lot of credit for beating the pacers by 1 in OT in a game they shot 50% from 3. As well as beating the raptors on a night where the raptors were really struggling offensively, raps leading scorer only had 12 points. We took BKLYN in there last matchup -8.5 and then doubled down again at -5.5 when the line dropped because I had doubt that the Wiz could continue to shoot 50% from 3 and they shot 23% against the Nets (We’ll give some credit there to Bruce Brown). The Wizards key pieces this year are basically scrap that the Lakers didn’t want anymore. Now, we’re not trying to shit on the Wizards here and we think they will have some good games. Especially once Rui and Bryant return. But we think the Celtics grab their first home win in this one and I’ll lay the 4 points.
Heat @ Nets -4
Line opening -4.5 Nets. This should be a good watch. Jimmy is coming off of a really good performance though be it against the Magic. KD has been playing MVP calibre basketball and Harden has underwhelmed to start the season. Nets were a really good home team last year, Heat about .500 on the road. Now, we’re going to catch some slack for this and it’s only our opinion… but we personally think the Heat have been overhyped since they went to the finals. Now we’re not saying they are a bad team by any means we think they are a really good team! Just not in the championship picture, but it seems like they always get mentioned in those conversations. The Nets have been a little shaky to start the season. Outside of the occasional performances we will see from Patty and LA the team in my opinion, lacks a bit of depth. The Heat have slightly more consistent bench guys in Herro and Kief but outside of them there isn’t a lot to write home about. We have a lean on the nets -4.5 at home here but unsure if we’re going to play this one.
Pacers @ Raptors +1
Line opening -1 Raptors and is now Pacers -1/-2 depending on your book. Big point swing in just few hours. Raps have continued to show me that they are better than I expected them to be especially without Siakim. Lavert has been upgraded to questionable for this one. We think at +1 the Pacers were really good value. Pacers were actually significantly better on the road last year than they were at home (13-23 vs 21-15). We really think the Pacers are a much better team than their 1-3 start is showing so far this year, and with a possible Lavert back it’ll give them another scoring option among the several they already have. The Raps are looking like a really solid defensive team but they lack on the offensive side of the ball.
Hawks -6 @ Pelicans
Line opening -6 Hawks. This Zion-less Pelicans squad has looked pretty bad to start the season. Outside of their last game they are losing games at an average of 14.33/game. The managed to get a 9 point victory of the Wolves who had just a terrible game. The hawks were not a great road team last year. Hawks have shown some pretty great defensive ability this year and we’re going to roll with the Hawks -6 here.
Twolves @ Bucks
Line opening -7.5 Bucks. Likely stay out of this one as there are way to many variables for me to put my money at risk on this one.
Kings @ Suns -6
Line opening -8 Suns. Lets start this one off by saying that we’re RARELY going to fade the suns. The kings were ranked dead last last year in defensive rating while the Suns ranked top 5. Suns have started out with some poor shooting. They are getting good shots and mostly playing pretty well but the shots haven’t been falling. Suns also incorporated a few new pieces into the rotation and are taking some time to gel. While we do think that the Suns grab their first home win of the season here, 8 points is a lot to lay here for a good young team in the Kings. As it stands, we may stay out of this one unless the line moves closer to maybe -6 where we take the Suns.
Grizzlies +2 @ Blazers
Line opening -2 Blazers. Dame has really struggled to start this season shooting 15/50 thru the first 3 games. The story remains the same with the blazers defensively. Ranked 29th last year and continuing to struggle so far this season. Blazers are adjusting to new head coach in Chauncy Billups. Grizzlies actually had a better record on the road last year than they did at home (21-15 vs 18-18). Grizzlies have looked really good to start the season and maybe a free throw away from being 3-0 this year. We’re going to roll with the Grizz +2.
Cavs +8 @ Clippers
Line opening at -7.5 Clips. Serge likely to remain out. Cleveland really looks pretty decent here to start the season. A lot of new additions to this team. Cavs have managed to keep a -1 point differential going 2-2 in there first 4 games. It’s not like they have been playing bums either (Grizz/Hornets/Hawks/Nuggets). The clips are a solid team even without Kawhi. Although, they seem a bit up and down. Seems like some nights they don’t really want to play and almost have be behind to start playing hard. 7.5 is a lot of points for me to lay against a Cavs team that seems to be on a burner so far. We’re leaning Cavs +7.5/+8 right now.