UFC Fight Night Costa Vs Vettori Betting Predictions

Marvin Vettori – Decision (We don’t quite know what version of Costa will return to the octagon after his title fight spanking, but the change of weight class beforehand has raised red flags. Injuries, mental troubles or gamesmanship have all been considered – but it is anyone’s guess until the two meet on Saturday night. The extra weight could well benefit Costa’s natural bruiser style, banking on his nuclear power to walk opponents down and drag them into a fire-fight in the pocket. Vettori’s defence on the back-foot is surprisingly sharp, even Adesanya struggled to land cleanly during the opening rounds of their rematch. Unfortunately for the Italian, his defence begins to unravel after the initial exchanges as a result of backward movement on a straight line. Costa can land cleanly on Vettori if he maintains educated pressure rather than banking on single power shots. While Vettori’s wrestling and gruelling pace remain the most likely route of victory, Costa’s underrated grappling could keep the fight standing during the opening sequences. If Vettori consistently pops out his leg kick while he waits for Costa to tire, he can limit the explosiveness of the Brazilian’s bursts similarly to Adesanya/Costa. With Costa’s durability and form questionable after his heavy TKO defeat, Vettori’s pace and consistency on the mat have to be backed)

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Grant Dawson – Decision (Joaquim Silva may disagree, but Glenn lacks the power to stop Dawson from walking him down and controlling him on the mat. Glenn’s rigid upper body and cripplingly slow footwork will see him cracked fairly often with Dawson’s fast overhand. Even if Dawson’s initial punches miss, Glenn throws full-blooded counters – rooting his feet in the process and leaving himself open for the takedown. This should prove a stylistic nightmare match-up for Glenn, but his granite chin and deep gas tank could spring a few issues late in the fight)

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Joselyne Edwards – Decision (An incredibly difficult bout to call. Jessica Rose-Clark should out-wrestle Edwards, a fighter more than willing to back herself onto the cage at the first sign of pressure. With Clark coming off an ACL injury, and Edwards’ regular inside and outside leg kicks, it could quickly create tough questions for the Australians. Edwards is the classier technician on the feet and will be benefitting from a far larger frame, but she also routinely fails to fight to a winning game plan)

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Seung Woo Choi – Decision (Choi is a filthy power puncher who seems to have finally found his feet in the UFC. Caceres’ fluid striking will eventually be able to reactively counter Choi’s early aggression, but he cannot afford the South Korean to dictate the opening pace. If, as expected, Caceres allows Choi to set the pace – Choi will gladly land his straight-left hook for three rounds and bank a dominant decision)

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Francisco Trinaldo – TKO Round 3 (I cannot see this fight as anything other than an awfully dull staring contest that ends in a brutal knockout and allows us to forget the slothful action prior. Both men use their jab to manage distance and make reads. Trinaldo’s chin was somewhat exposed by Jai Herbert, yet the Brazilian showed uncanny recovery time to find a late finish. Grant’s same short 2-3 shot combinations won’t be enough to out-fox Trinaldo, with the Brazilian’s experience likely too much)

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Ike Villanueva – TKO Round 2 (Villanueva’s dirty boxing in the clinch, an area that Negumereanu will happily walk head-first into, will cause serious damage. Against an opponent unable to move on the back-foot as sharply as Prachnio, Villanueva will also be able to unload his combinations without much thought. The Romanian owns a couple of decent throws, but his limited top game is unlikely to change the outcome much)

Gregory Rodrigues – Decision (Rodrigues is a strong grappler, but he hasn’t yet shown the ability to pin opponents to the mat with the same dominance as Park. Park doesn’t have the same pop as Jordan Williams to check Rodrigues’ chin early, meaning Robocop could exploit Park’s shakey TDD if he finds himself overwhelmed by the Korean’s heavy volume. An even, meaningful affair between two rising Middleweights should be fun)

Mason Jones – TKO Round 3 (Onoma isn’t an easy knock-over can that often form most short-notice replacements. The powerful finisher fits the heavy-handed prospect stereotype that has regularly succeeded in securing early knockouts to create a name for themselves. Unfortunately, Jones’ remains the vastly superior fighter. A granite chin, excellent extended striking exchanges, a furious pace and naturally larger frame will drag Onoma into torrid, unproven waters)

Tabatha Ricci – Submission Round 3 (Ricci appears to be a fighter who needs the right match-ups to truly shine. Enter, Oliveira. The superior striker and greater physical specimen, her equally paper-thin record plasters over a total inability to make use of her striking advantage. An ugly fight that will likely see Oliveira allowing Ricci to close the distance, from which Oliveira will be sat and submitted)

Laureano Staropoli – Decision (Maybe it’s my heart speaking, but Staropoli will break his three-fight slide on Saturday night. Despite an impressive 80″ reach, Pickett often opts to suffocate dangerous situations by wrapping up opponents on the inside and catching his breath. Even with a wrestling advantage, Pickett hasn’t shown the ability to pursue his preferred fight with success. The Argentinian’s volume and creative combinations should catch the judges eyes on the night and overcome the 10″ reach disadvantage)

Jai Herbert – TKO Round 1 (Worthy’s vulnerability in the first round will continue the trend in this affair. In the face of Herbert’s regular ram-rod jab, Worthy will struggle further to make quick reads and will likely be caught flat-footed. Worse yet, Herbert’s bouncing entries will leave Worthy unable to time counters and likely find himself caught with Herbert’s killer head kick)

Jonathan Martinez – TKO Round 3 (The Georgian will find a lot of success early, suffocating Martinez’s superior striking by clinching up and devouring Martinez space. With a late weight cut, however, Martinez should be able to find room in the later rounds and detonate his power)