Michelle Waterson – Decision (Michelle Waterson is a technically polished striker, with a disgustingly underrated clinch game, but her size may prove an issue in this fight. While both women are career Flyweights, Rodriguez is best primed to benefit from the fight being at 125, as Waterson already fights above her natural weight due to the lack of Atomweight division in the UFC. The Brazilian is a tall striker with strong footwork that forces opponents to chase her laterally around the border of the octagon, rarely backing herself against the cage. Rodriguez struggles to work herself up off the mat when she is forced onto her back, however and often drains out rounds by staying safe in guard. Waterson’s wrestling isn’t stellar, but her deep gas tank and ability to mix shots with kickboxing combination suggest the American will eventually take the fight to the ground)
Donald Cerrone – Decision (This fight could come down to just how far Cowboy has regressed. At thirty-eight years old, and owner of a 0-4-1 slide, Cerrone is also a momentum fighter that has been forced to stay on the sidelines for nearly a year. Still, the time off may also prove beneficial to fully recuperate any injuries that Cowboy sustained over 2019-2020. As long as Cerrone hasn’t declined sharply, this is an ideal stylistic match-up. Morono is a well-rounded grinder who utilises unorthodox herky-jerky striking to pressure opponents against the cage and eventually work his way to the back. Cerrone is a master of distance, however, and won’t struggle to keep a longer range where he can land his demolition kicks within creative combinations. Moreover, Cerrone’s intercepting knees and sharpened shot defence will stop Morono from blindly wrestling from the opening minute)
Geoff Neal – TKO Round 2 (In a five-round fight, Magny would have to be favoured as his exceptional conditioning and underrated wrestling would allow him to take over a powerful but fleeting Neal. In a three-rounder, Neal’s solid TDD (as seen against Belal Muhammad) will allow him to keep the fight standing and push Magny on the feet. At 6’3″ and operating behind a strong jab, Magny can keep the fight at an uncomfortable range, but his striking defence is leaky. Moving backwards in a straight line will allow Neal to free reign over the centre of the octagon, as well as ample to land his heavy hands)
Maurice Greene – Submission Round 2 (This is a real-toss up between two gatekeepers at Heavyweight with massive holes in their game. Greene is a high-risk striker with almost no striking defence, throwing ridiculous head kicks while biding his time to engage in the clinch. De Lima possesses heavy hands and filthy leg kicks, by throwing full power in every shot he regularly leaves himself exposed to takedowns. Greene’s durability may be enough to see him through a rocky first-round, and eventually, expose a tiring de Lima on the mat)
Gregor Gillespie – Decision (One of the top BJJ specialists at Lightweight, Ferreira has tightened his kickboxing over his UFC tenure to the level that he is no longer reliant solely on the ground game. Porous TDD has plagued Ferreira, and against a four-time All-American wrestler, Gillespie has the athletic and technical ability to keep Ferreira pinned on his back. If this was solely a wrestling/BJJ toss-up, then Gillespie has to favoured to bank the rounds based on his dominant top control, submission defence and gas tank. After a year and a half layoff, it will be a far closer affair with sprinklings of striking that may see the Brazilian pull ahead on the scorecards)
Angela Hill – TKO Round 3 (Ribas is a strong wrestler with a wonderful ground game, seemingly the kryptonite of Angela Hill. Hill, however, has sharpened her TDD over the past couple of years and stuffed several attempts by Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson. While Ribas’ wrestling is likely a level above, her atrocious striking defence is not. With little head movement on offer, no nuance to her advances, and a lack of jab to sit behind, Ribas had been lucky to progress so far in the UFC without her chin being checked before the Rodriguez fight. Hill isn’t a one-shot lights out fighter, but she can throw consistent volume throughout the fifteen minutes that will crack Ribas’ chin as long as she remains disciplined on the feet)
Ben Rothwell – TKO Round 1 (It is probably time to end the Lins experiment if he is unsuccessful against Rothwell on Saturday night. A small Heavyweight, Lins has been unable to fights to the mat, and as a result, has been picked apart on the feet. Rothwell appears to have regressed since his return to the UFC, now largely a one-round pressure fighter, but he still possesses the TDD and striking volume to walk Lins down)
Phil Hawes – Decision (Daukaus is a towering 6’3″ Middleweight who may prove a nuisance to get control of in the clinch, but Hawes’ cleaner striking and greater power during the early rounds to bank enough on the scorecards before his gas tank fades. Daukaus can throw up a submission off his back, but Hawes proved last time out that he has the technique in addition to physical athletic excellence to grind out rounds from the top)
L’udovit Klein – TKO Round 2 (Ultimate Fighter winner, Mike Trizano, has been on a two-year layoff since being put to sleep by a Grant Dawson rear-naked choke back in 2019. Trizano was an okay wrestler but he excelled on the feet with patient kickboxing that picked opponents apart with compact defence and educated single shot selection. Klein is an early fight threat with a lethal head kick that is expertly masked with front kicks, body kicks and decent boxing. Based on form and ring rust, Klein should be favoured)
Ryan Benoit – Decision (Adashev could take this fight based on his volume, but his blindly aggressive forward momentum leaves him open for hard counters. Benoit may operate far too patiently, over-waiting for the perfect counter shot, but he still carries huge power while Adashev’s leaky defence offers regular opportunities to land)
Tafon Nchukwi – TKO Round 1 (This may be too stern a test for Nchukwi so early in his career, and with so many question marks remaining over his wrestling ability, yet the sheer power and size of the Cameroonian will likely be too much at 185. If Park can sail through an early storm, his simple but sharp boxing combinations and solid wrestling should force the fight to the mat or at least against the cage. Whether the fight makes it outside of the first few exchanges, however, is the real question)
Carlston Harris – Decision (Harris may be thirty-three, but he has a wealth of experience with a couple of decent scalps including Wellington Turman (UFC) and Saygid Izagakhmaev (Khabib’s sparring partner). Aguilera has heavy hands and a decent wrestling game, but Harris relentlessly pursues the takedown. Harris could find a submission, Aguilera could secure the stoppage, but the safest call is Harris grinding Aguilera down against the cage)