Our Picks:
Hermansson to win @ 2.20
Roman Dolidze to win @ 1.50
Dolidze is a stud grappler and ADCC champ, who just so happens to also have bricks for hands and a great sense of range on the feet. His opponent John Allan is a game fighter, with well rounded skills, but we do not see any straight forward path to victory for Allan. His bread and butter is his BJJ game, but he is levels below Dolidze in that department. Most likely he tries to keep it standing but he will be at a big power disadvantage and we have not seen anything out of him that suggests he can out box Roman for 15 minutes while avoiding the big right hand Dolidze possesses.
Louis Smolka to win via KO @ 6.00
Both fighters have similar recent records in terms of loosing to steps up in competition. Smolka is certainly a liability himself, but he always comes out with heat and dangerous strikes looking to finish. His body shots and hooks are crazy, he landed some absolute bombs against Casey Kenny. Meanwhile, the well rounded but soft Quinonez absolutely does not like getting hit. He got rocked by a jab against Wood and folded as soon as he got hit against O’Malley. If Smolka lands a bomb the opportunity to finish will be there. Other good plays on this fight are u2.5 (+137) or FDNGTD (+120) which have tonnes of value / insurance and actually might be better overall to be honest.
Value Picks:
Benitez by sub +550
Topuria by sub +250
Evloev by sub +460
Dolizde by finish -145
De La Rosa by sub +700
Hermansson by sub +420
Hermansson has been training for the five-round main event slot, while Vettori was prepping for three rounds, though it was twice scheduled against opponents with strong grappling/submission bases. It’s safe to assume that oddsmakers had Hermansson at -250 against Holland, as Hermansson more than likely would have had a considerable grappling edge against the stand-up striker, though now faces a much stronger grappler in Vettori, hence the line move. Hermansson’s length and prepared gas tank should pose some issues for Vettori on the feet, though Vettori’s high pressure and ability to close will make the fight on the feet very interesting. There is no doubt that this one gets to the mat, and at that point, Vettori will be a tough out for Hermansson, as Vettori has yet to be finished in his career. Hermansson has won three of his last four victories by way of submission, and though it very well could happen again here, even with Vettori’s track record, we don’t see it happening early on. This paired with Vettori’s limited power shots on the feet (only two KO wins in 20 fights), has us siding with the over 2.5 rounds in this spot. Sure Hermansson has an 81% finish rate, though as of late, it’s tough to look past the age, or even “fighter age” in recent fights he’s had scheduled.
Additionally, six of Vettori’s last seven UFC fights have gone to the final bell, and against some very dangerous foes. As far as decisions go, Hermansson is 4-1, and Vettori is 4-4 when fights go to the final bell, so we won’t rush out to bet Vettori at this price. We’re not sure if this one goes all five, but we’re fairly confident in the over 2.5 rounds at a great price. not a huge fan of Hermansson, but the odds-makers are not giving him enough respect here. Vettori is a tough stylistic match-up, but he’s not prepared for 5 rounds and this is a huge step up in competition for him.