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Israel Adesanya (19-0) vs Paulo Costa (13-0)
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Dominick Reyes (12-1) vs Jan Blachowicz (26-8)
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Hakeem Dawodu (11-1-1) vs Zubaira Tukhugov (19-4-1)
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Kai Kara-France (21-8) vs Brandon Royval (19-4-1)
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Diego Sanchez (30-12) vs Jake Matthews (16-4)
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Brad Riddell (8-1) vs Alex Da Silva (21-2)
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William Knight (8-1) vs Aleksa Camur (6-0)
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Jeff Hughes (10-3) vs Juan Espino (9-1)
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Khadis Ibragimov (8-3) vs Danilo Marques (9-2)
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Ketlen Vieira (10-1) vs Sijara Eubanks (6-4)
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Shane Young (13-4) vs Ludovit Klein (16-2
UFC 253 Straight Picks
Camur ML (-175)
Matthews ML (-600)
Izzy ML (-160)
Ibragimov ML (-160)
Vieira (-180)
Espino (-300)
Underdogs
Klein (+100)
Da Silva (+250)
Dawodu (+115)
Props/Parlays
Adesanya wins by Sub (+1700)
Costa wins by Sub (+1900)
High value bet due to a press conference dispute between Izzy and Costa where they were insulting each others jujitsu. If Izzy can take it deep, let Costa gass himself out, we believe for bragging rights, he will take his back and choke him out. The same can be said about Costa, not only did the talk shit about each others JJ in the press conference, the star down involved Costa throwing a white belt at Izzy.
Ibragimov wins by TKO/KO (+205)
Da Silva wins by submission (+800)
Klein wins by TKO/KO (+200)
Ibragimov/Vieira/Klein (+420)
Izzy Vs Costa Breakdown
We hope he can survive the first 2-3 rounds and then pick Ricky Martin apart later. Izzy is vulnerable while moving forward unless his opponent is gassed. Costa has better MMA boxing than Izzy. It’s going to be a good fight because we think Costa will be constantly pressuring Izzy early on, until his gas tank runs out. However, consensus says that Izzy vs Costa is a matchup between a pressure fighter & a counter striker we suggest watching Costa vs Márcio Alexandre where Costa pressured him against the cage chasing a sub. What is almost certain, Costa is not going 5 rounds, especially in Abu Dhabi where it’s humid AF and the weight cut was brutal. While we do think he doesn’t have the technique to catch Izzy and finish him in the first three rounds. Izzy was caught by Kelvin with a head kick which is a little worrying. Maybe we can put this down to Izzy having too much fun?
Costa’s X Factor
We think an X factor many are missing is that Costa is not afraid to foul. I believe there were 3 penis strikes when he fought Hall. Izzy has good head movement, but dick movement? Who’s to say? If costa gets tired, there’s his break. 2 hard accidental knees or kicks to the groin will give him enough time to catch his breath and slow Izzy down.
Costa also goes ham to the body. Great kicks and hooks to the liver. Very durable and recovered perfectly from a Romero bomb. Constant forward pressure, which plays into Izzy’s game, but as shown in the Kelvin fight, Izzy is not untouchable and if he gets his back to the cage Costa will let those hooks fly. Triple C has been in camp with him too and encouraged him to score TDs when possible. This is huge for our Sub 18/1 pick. If he shoots and scores one at the end of a round, the Stevie wonder judges might just swing it his way even if it was inconsequential.
Reyes Vs Blachowicz Breakdown
Reyes seems like such a heavy favourite in this fight. He arguably lost to Volkan Ozedemir, a similar styled fighter to Jan, heavy hands, quick, strong in the clinch and brutal against the fence. We are 100% tipping Jan to beat the breaks clean off Reyes at this stage of his career maybe coming to the last chance of him winning a belt. The value of odds are just so JUICY for Blachowicz ITD/KO and he has a a lot more experience at this championship level.
Image credit: Rollingstone