US Elections 2022
Just a reminder everyone that early voters tend to skew heavily toward Democrats, while Voters who vote tomorrow will be more Republican. So don’t be surprised if you see high numbers for Democrats early on and then Republicans close the margin/take a lead as tomorrow night rolls on.
For you Senate bettors, the races to watch are New Hampshire, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Georgia is look like it’ll head to a runoff/too close to call. Focus you’re attention on New Hampshire, where the race has tightened in recent polling to be within the margin of error. If Hassan is able to keep a lead as the night goes on/does better than expected, that bolds well for Democrats flipping Pennsylvania and/or keeping the Senate. If Bolduc is keeps it close/ends up getting a lead, that bolds badly for the Pennsylvania race for Democrats and you’ll have to worry about Arizona and Nevada senate races, which are much closer.
Regular poll watcher and politics media consumer here. Some broad predictions:
GOP takes control of the Senate, possessing ~52 seats
Dem wins: Bennet, Duckworth, Fetterman, Hassan, Kelly, Murray, Schumer, Warnock*, Wyden
GOP wins: Boozman, Britt, Budd, Johnson, Laxalt, Lee, Moran, Rubio, Schmitt, Vance
* Warnock and Walker will likely head to a runoff. we expect to be wrong about either Kelly, Fetterman, or Warnock too, so that is priced into my 52 thinking.
GOP takes control of the House, possessing ~240 seats
The old political truism that off-year elections favor the party out of office is going to hold, even with an unusually relatively small partisan enthusiasm gap. The momentum has swung toward the GOP in the last couple weeks of polling and we do not see the House being particularly close.
A few picks for the politics bettors out there as a Michigander:
All three Props pass in Michigan. Prop 1 and Prop 2 pass in a landslide, Prop 3 by 5-10 points.
We think Governor Gretchen Whitmer wins re-election in Michigan by 2 – 5 points. Dixon is a bad candidate with too many weaknesses (namely, a refusal to tack more moderate in a purple state) and Prop 3 is going to drive liberal and moderate turnout more substantially than in states where abortion access is not directly on the ballot. We think that will be enough for Whitmer to hold off the red wave. At 80c on predicted, there isn’t a ton of value on Whitmer, so maybe wait to see if those numbers tighten if considering a last-minute bet, but Whitmer to win is our lean.
The 2022 United States elections are an ongoing set of elections that are primarily held on November 8, 2022. During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested.
Best Political Betting Picks and Tips, Image Credit: bbc.co.uk
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