Nikolas Motta vs. Cameron VanCamp
Cameron VanCamp ML
The safest play for this fight would be to take the fight doesn’t go the distance @ -225. However, there’s value on the VanCamp side in our humble opinion. Motta is chinny, and VanCamp had Fialho rocked in his last fight at WW before getting KO’d. Him getting KO’d by Fialho doesn’t really worry me, as Fialho hits incredibly hard and has KO’d some pretty good WW’s.
VanCamp is fighting @ 155 here, so he should have a size advantage over Motta. Motta does hit hard, so if VanCamp gets flatlined, we won’t be incredibly shocked, it’s MMA after all. However, he has more paths to victory here, as he has a very dynamic ground game. And he also has good power in his hands. We see a club and sub victory for him, however his KO line @ +1000(FD) is a bit off, given that Motta’s losses have come by KO(and to lesser strikers).
Tony Gravely vs. Javid Basharat
Gravely ML
This is a HUGE step up in competition for Basharat. Basharat has shown us that he’s very skilled, but against lesser competition. Is Gravely a lock? Fuck no. But Basharat is relatively untested compared to Gravely, so give me Gravely at dog odds, and if Basharat beats him, I’ll put more stock into him moving forward.
Trevin Giles vs. Louis Cosce
Cosce ITD +400
Giles has proven over the past few fights that he’s rather chinny. He shot for TD’s against Morales, which he historically seldomly does. We’re not sure if his mental is broken after suffering a few KO losses, but Cosce is a dog in round 1. All of his victories have come in round 1 via KO. The reason we’re getting this line is because he’s been on a 2 year layoff, but there’s going to be violence in this fight. The best bet is FDGTD @ -250, but give us Cosce RD1 +850, and Cosce ITD(Bet365 boost to +400).
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatin
Jackson ITD +700
This line has shifted, but he can still be found ITD for +650 on FOX bet. Sabatini more than likely wins, but we think there’s value on this line. Jackson is dangerous, especially with his submissions. If you can get his sub line around +850, that’s where the value lies in this fight. Dog or pass here, if Sabatini wins, it’s not going to be pretty. He’s going to spam TD’s, Jackson will not be held down by him, and will have a striking advantage. And if Jackson gets on top, there’s a very good chance he finishes him.
Tanner Boser vs. R. Nascimento
Nascimento ITD +250
We’re not big on Boser. He definitely has good footwork and overall movement for HW, but he’s undersized by 30lbs in this matchup. We saw Latifi win via wrestlefuck, and Nascimento is a LEGIT black belt — if he gets Boser down, he’s going to finish him if there’s enough time left on the clock. Nascimento has lulls on the feet where he’s inactive as fuck, and Boser could very well capitalize on that and win rounds or even find a finish. But I’m siding with the bigger man with the grappling upside here. We played Boser by KO in his last fight against OSP, but that version of OSP was nothing to write home about. Nascimento is still 29, and training at ATT. We think Nascimento wins via submission here.
Alen Amedovski vs. Joseph Pyfer
Pyfer sub +600
Pyfer wins this basically however he wants. It’s a setup spot for him. Pyfer has VERY good BJJ and wrestling, which would be his path of least resistance in this fight. He more than likely wins via KO, but Amedovski was choked out by Joseph Holmes via RNC with no hooks in last fight. Pyfer is better than Holmes, and at +600, we think the line is a little wide. Alternative play would be Pyfer ITD -220, or u1.5 -180.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Gregory Rodrigues
We have no play on this fight as of right now, but we will more than likely end up on the Rodriguez side. Rodriguez is a world champion BJJ specialist, however he’s fallen in love with his hands recently, for good reason. Chidi is very legit standing though, and seems to have found his groove his past few fights. However, we think Robocop just has more paths to victory here, and @ +110, we’d have to play him. Alternative bet would be u2.5 @ -200.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Yadong Song
Sandhagen ML
We’re not sure where all the love for Song is coming from. He’s KO or bust here. Sandhagen has drastically better footwork, better feints, better overall movement, better cardio, and has been in two full five round fights against two of the best fighters in the division in Yan and TJ. We’d actually had TJ in their fight, and was thoroughly impressed at how Sandhagen was able to get back up from every TD, and drop TJ a few different times. If Song attempts a wrestling approach, he’s not going to be able to hold Cory down, and he’s going to gas himself out in the process. We’ve seen Cory look GREAT against TJ in round 5 after TJ attempted a dozen TD’s up until that point. Losing to Yan(and he won the first few rounds) is nothing to be ashamed of. We think Cory is the rightful favorite here, and barring a fluke KO, should win a decision or get it done in the later rounds. Song is a good fighter, don’t get me wrong, but he’s still young and isn’t ready to be in the top of the division quite yet.
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