The Final Events of the PGA Tour
Predictions
Date: Aug 25–28, 2022
Course: East Lake Golf Club
This week brings the final event, the tour championship, with the winner taking home a LIVesque prize of £14 million. It features the top 30 in the Fedex cup standing and will not have a cut. If you’re not familiar with the event, it uses a staggered start, meaning the players will begin with strokes under par based on their points standing. Some books will offer bets without staggered start as well, since odds will likely be a mess.
The event will be played at east lake golf club in Atlanta, same as last year. This course has super narrow fairways, and places an enormous emphasis on accurate driving. That’s the key skill to look for this week.
East Lake’s fairways play among the tightest on tour and thus driving accuracy will be a premium this week. The rough doesn’t play super long so it wouldn’t seem like missing the fairway would be a big deal but this is a course where you have to hit your approach shots into the right part of the green to even have a chance of scoring. Looking at past results, Greens in Regulation and Driving Accuracy tend to correlate to the low scores here at East Lake so I’ll be looking closely at those stat leaders. Because it can be hard to hit the right parts of these greens out of the rough I’ll also be looking at scrambling. This course also tends to feature a lot of uneven lies to ball striking is another stat I’ll be looking closely at. There are five par 4s playing between 400-450 with two coming in just under that around 380-385 so I think par 4 scoring 400-450 yds is another stat to consider here. I think that par 4 scoring will cross-over with SG: Approach 125-250 yds as well so I’ll be looking at that. There is only 2 par 5s and both are reachable so I think it will be very important to capitalize on them so par 5 scoring will be another stat I’ll look at.
Target Profile: Based on past results here it’s all about Tee-To-Green play. The repeat names we see who have performed well here are Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey, and John Rahm and DJ to an extent, all very strong tee-to-green players. Putting doesn’t seem to be a necessity here so I won’t be looking very closely at that. I’ll be looking at Tee-To-Green rankings for my initial target list and from there will be looking at my other key stats to narrow down my list.
Key Stats: SG: Tee-To-Green,
SG: OTT (emphasis on accuracy),
SG: Approach (emphasis on 125-150 yds),
Scrambling,
Ball Striking,
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds,
Par 5 scoring.
Our Picks: Most firms paying 6+ places
Xander Schauffele ML @7/1
Sam Burns ML @18/1
Cameron Smith ML @16/1
John Rahm ML @14/1
Full 30 Player Field And Par Score:
Scottie Scheffler, -10
Patrick Cantlay, -8
Will Zalatoris, -7
Xander Schauffele, -6
Sam Burns, -5
Cameron Smith, -4
Rory McIlroy, -4
Tony Finau, -4
Sepp Straka, -4
Sungjae Im, -4
Jon Rahm, -3
Scott Stallings, -3
Justin Thomas, -3
Camerson Young, -3
Matt Fitzpatrick, -3
Max Homa, -2
Hideki Matsuyama, -2
Jordan Spieth, -2
Joaquin Niemann, -2
Viktor Hovland, -2
Collin Morikawa, -1
Billy Horschel, -1
Tom Hoge, -1
Corey Conners, -1
Brian Harman, -1
K.H. Lee, E
J.T. Poston, E
Sahith Theegala, E
Adam Scott, E
Aaron Wise, E
Best Golf Betting Picks and Preview, Image Credit: koobit.com
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