PGA Tour Golf
Date: Jun 30–Jul 3, 2022
Our Predictions:
Webb Simpson @11/1
Jason Day @25/1
Sahith Theegala @20/1
Most Online Firms Paying 8 Places.
Players will head to Silvis, IL in hopes of earning one of 3 remaining spots in The Open Championship at St Andrews. TPC Deere Run will once again play host to the John Deere Classic just as it has for the past 2 decades, and we will without a doubt see yet another shootout here. TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that will play 7,289 yards but will player shorter than that. Most of the length comes on the par 5s and one of the par 3s. 18 under was the lowest winning score since 2008 and the winning score has reached 20 under a whopping 9 times since then. If we’re being honest, it’s kind of a crappy field for this event but it’s a solid purse of 7 million and players will want one of those coveted Open Championship spots. These are the types of events where sleepers come into play, and here we have a legit shot to hit on those 100-1 or longer guys.
Looking at the previous winners here we can see lots of different skillsets have succeeded here from bombers to ball-strikers to whatever Ryan Moore is. When we look at the stats it tells us that as per usual in shootout events the most important thing is approach followed closely by putting. Players hit these fairways and greens at a much higher rate than tour average and we can expect to see a lot of approach shots coming from the 100-125 and 125-150 yd range. These are bentgrass greens and since putting will be important this week, we should be targeting guys who putt best on bentgrass.
This is one of those events where you need a hot putter from 10-15 feet to contend since the winning score is likely going to be around 21 under. We want to be targeting ball-strikers who are going to fire at the pins. I want the guys who make the most birdies, even if that means a few extra bogeys. I’m targeting a Sam Burns style guy here who could go +2 in on his first 3 holes but then string together 5 straight birdies and still end up shooting a 64. There are 3 par 4s that play 350-400 and a lot of the scoring will be done here as all 3 boast a birdie rate of over 20%. The rest of the scoring will come on the par 5s.
Key Stats
SG: Approach
Approach proximity of 100-150 yards
Par 4 scoring 350-400 yards
Par 5 scoring 550-600 yards
SG: Putting
Birdies or Better Gained
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