Hawks @ Cavaliers Picks:
Trae Young under 11.5 Assists (-130)
Clint Capela over 13.5 Rebounds (-118)
Danilo Gallinari under 4.5 Rebounds (+118)
Trae Young U11.5 Assists (-130)
FD Assist Line: O11.5 (+106), U11.5 (-130)
Vs. Cavs (4 games):
9.0 Assists/15.3 Potential Assists
Against Cleveland this year, Trae Young has had games of:
7 assists (19 potential)
11 assists (17 potential)
9 assists (12 potential)
9 assists (13 potential)
For Trae Young to get 12+ assists, it would require him to hit on ~78.4% of his potential assists (15.3) that he’s averaged this year against Cleveland which just isn’t that likely. While Young should have a high usage rate, last year showed that he will display an uptick in PPG (25.3 to 28.8) and a slight downtick in potential APG (17.6 to 17.4) and passes made (55.6 to 55.3) in Playoff/Play-In scenarios.
Although it was a small sample size, this was shown this year from his regular season potential assist number of 17.2 potential APG to Play-In Game 1 where he had 15 potential assists. Since there is no data to suggest that he will have an uptick in passes made or potential assists in this Play-In game, it can be assumed that unless he hits on almost 80% of his potential assists, he will not hit the over on his assist line.
Clint Capela O13.5 Rebounds (-118)
FD Rebound Line: O13.5 (-118), U13.5 (-102)
Vs. Cavs (4 games):
14.5 Rebounds/23.5 Rebound Chances
Against Cleveland this year, Clint Capela has had games of:
14 rebounds (24 chances)
23 rebounds (29 chances)
7 rebounds (17 chances)
14 rebounds (24 chances)
This year the Cavaliers have given up the 7th most rebounds to Centers and Capela has taken advantage of this. He averaged 14.5 Rebounds on 23.5 Rebound Chances per game against them, with the O13.5 hitting in 3 out of the last 4 games.
For the over to hit in this game, it would require Capela to grab a rebound in ~59.6% of his expected opportunities, a percentage that he has not struggled to grab this year as he averaged 11.9 rebounds in 18.8 chances per game (63.3%).
While it is not completely indicative of how he will perform against the Cavaliers, Capela had 17 rebounds/25 chances (68%) in just 29.5 minutes against the Hornets who are also in the bottom third of the NBA at giving up rebounds to Centers.
Danilo Gallinari U4.5 Rebounds (+118)
FD Rebound Line: O4.5 (-144), U4.5 (+118)
Vs. Cavs (2 games):
3.5 Rebounds/6.5 Rebound Chances
Against Cleveland this year, Danilo Gallinari has had games of:
3 rebounds (5 chances)
4 rebounds (8 chances)
This year the Cavaliers give up the least amount of rebounds to Power Forwards. Gallinari only averaged 3.5 Rebounds on 6.5 Rebound Chances per game against them, with the U4.5 hitting in every game.
For the over to hit in this game, it would require Gallinari to grab a rebound in ~76.9% of his expected opportunities, which is highly unlikely as he only averaged 4.7 rebounds in 7.3 chances per game (64.4%). The percentage of rebounds per chance is what’s more important here considering he should get less chances to grab them against this Cavaliers team.
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