US Master Golf Who Will Win
Date: Apr 7–10, 2022
Course: Augusta National Golf Course
To start we have a new world #1 in Scottie Scheffler who has been playing some unbelievable golf. The players will head to one of golf’s most iconic venues, Augusta National, to battle it out for the green jacket. The azaleas are in full bloom and the fairways and greens have been perfectly manicured to host the most talented players in the world.
Whether it be Nicklaus’s first of many wins here in 1963, Tiger making history with a 12-shot victory here in 1997, or Lefty’s incredible shot on the 13th in 2010; this event has played host to some of the most incredible moments in golf history. To put it simply, this is one of a handful of events each year that you really must tune in for.
First up we need to kick off with the fact that course history is very important here. When you look at the last 5 Masters you see A LOT of the same names on the leader board. Now, a large part of that is because these are the best players in the world on the biggest possible stage. But the other element is being familiar with the course, knowing when you can and can’t hit certain shots, and knowing when to play for pars and let the rest of the field make mistakes. Tiger was one of the very best at this, knowing when to attack this course and when to hold serve. There are 43 players in this year’s field who have positive strokes gained on this course and among those 43, very few have sporadic results. Most of them have consistent finishes here, which supports course history as being an important stat to look at. Based on the last few years I think we can expect a winning score in the neighbourhood of 12-13 under.
Next, we’ll talk about the fairways and greens. By in large, the fairways are much easier to hit than the tour average by almost 6%. Conversely, the greens prove much more difficult to hit coming in over 5% lower than the tour average. Now this is where things get really interesting, 3-putts per round is WAY up here compared to tour average. That’s because these greens have some of the most extreme hills and undulations that these players will see all year. On top of that the greens tend to play FAST. Bottom line is you really want to focus on players who putt well specifically on this course.
Next, let’s look at Strokes Gained: Approach. We just talked about how tricky these greens can be so there is a definitive advantage to those who can stick their approach shots close and leave themselves short putts. There’s no way around it, the stats show that winners and high finishers gain substantially on the field in approach and GIR%. Since these fairways are fairly easy to hit this is a spot to look to guys with distance off the tee that gives them an advantage on the field with shorter approach shots into these greens (Strokes Gained: Off The Tee). It should come as no surprise that a lot of the scoring here comes on the 4 par 5s with #13 and #15 allowing right around a 3% eagle rate. Long hitters off the tee will have short to mid-irons in their hands for these approach shots.
Looking at the course layout I’m thinking we will see a lot of approach shots coming in from the ranges of 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards. The 175-200 yd range will be important on those two short par 5s we just talked about. Lastly, I want to talk about Strokes Gained: Short Game. We already talked about how complicated and tricky these greens can be so just like we want guys who can putt well on them, we want guys who can ship well on them also. Reading some of these chips is going to be just as if not more difficult than reading some of these putts.
Key Stats
SG: OTT
Course History
SG: Approach, w/focus on proximity of 150-175 and 175-200 yds
SG: Par 5 Scoring
SG: Short Game
SG: Putting
Our Early Picks (skybet paying 11 places)
Scottie Scheffler @14/1
Sam Burns @30/1
Shane Lowry @35/1
Max Homa @80/1
And For The Old Romantics Tiger Woods @50/1
Best Masters Golf Betting Picks and Preview
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