The Players Championship
We were in line for a massive weekend and then Rory McIlroy did his best Daniel Berger impression….and then Paul Casey and Willy Z followed suit. Two straight weeks of being on what felt like the right golfer only to watch them have an absolute meltdown definitely hurts, but we’re back at it again for The Players Championship, let’s get it!
Players will now take the short 2-hour drive North to Ponte Vedra Beach for the Players Championship. The Players Stadium Course, golf’s first true stadium course, is a par 72 that will play 7,256 yards. If you haven’t tuned into this tournament before, make sure you tune-in for the signature par 3 17th island green. This is one of the most intimidating holes in golf, especially on Sunday for guys near the top of the leaderboard. This hole has seen some of the biggest moments in golf and you don’t want to miss the magic. If you haven’t seen it before, look up “Tiger Woods TPC Sawgrass #17 better than most” and thank me later. If you have already seen it, watch it again haha.
This is one of a few events where course history isn’t super predictive and it’s more about who’s in the best form and who gets hot. Driving accuracy is up a little bit from tour average but GIR% is a little lower here. We can expect to see a winning score around 13-15 under with 18 under being the lowest winning score in the past decade and 10 under being the highest.
This event sees a lot of wedge shots on approach as 75-100, 100-125, and 125-150 yd shots are all above the tour average. That being said, a lot of the scoring will be done on the par 5s and there are also 5 par 4s that play 450-500 yards and so I think it’ll be important to look at 175-225 yds approach proximity too. There may not be as many approach shots from that distance, but they are going to be important shots. Strokes Gained: Approach is historically the most important stat, so we definitely want to target very good approach players, especially those who are skilled with a wedge in their hands.
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds is a stat we’re going to be looking at with five par 4s falling into that range. There is also plenty of trouble on this course and we’ve seen Bogey Avoidance become more relevant among the leaders the past few years, so we’ll take a look at that as well. We saw first-hand how important hitting the fairway can be at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Now, while the rough here may not be as treacherous as Bay Hill, it is still hugely important to be accurate off the tee to avoid the hazards. Lastly, this is a big event, and big dogs tend to win here. There has been a handful of outliers, but for the most part we see top tier players win this event. That’s not to say we can’t take a look at some longer odds guys, but we want to make sure we’re taking guys who can compete against the best of the best and have shown it.
Key Stats
SG: Approach, w/focus on proximities of 75-125 yds and 175-200 yds
Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Par 5 Scoring
Driving Accuracy
SG: Ball Striking
Most Online Betting shops paying 10 places so here are our value picks
Dustin Johnson at +4000,
Brooks Koepka +4200,
Corey Connors +7000,
Outrights –
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Tyrell Hatton (+6500)
The Players Championship is an annual golf tournament on the PGA Tour. Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, it began in 1974. The Players Championship currently offers the highest prize fund of any tournament in golf, overtaking the U.S. Open, which offers a $12.5 million purse.
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