Ciryl Gane – Submission Round 4 (While the script is available for all to see, Lewis secures his highlight reel comeback stoppages time and time again. A style based around durability, exceptional recovery and timing a one-shot knockout could only work for so long at Heavyweight. Of course, Lewis’ meme-like power off his back to keep fights standing enables the Black Beast more opportunities to land ‘that shot’. Even with the clear limitations of Lewis’ game, his mental fortitude remains elite. Willing to drop every round while waiting patiently for his overhand, Lewis also filters in a sprinkling of crazy explosive jumping strikes. Gane, without failure, has risen to every incremental career hurdle with nothing less than a dominant performance. The Frenchman possesses the tools to emulate Mark Hunt’s victory over Lewis, even without the lights-out power. A penchant for bodywork, regular leg kicks, and a variety of hand and shoulder feints all serve to draw out Lewis’ overhand. If Gane keeps this at range, there is almost no chance for Lewis to land his power. Unfortunately, Gane tends to smother his work against wobbled opponents, a prime time for Lewis to land big. Worse yet, Gane tends to gas by the championship rounds and watch his work in the pocket. Taking shots against Volkov is fine for Gane’s chin, against Lewis it could be suicidal. With the wrestling chops to offer brief respite in exchanges or to transition from awkward positions, Gane likely has the tools to ride choppy waters)
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Jose Aldo – Decision (Either Munhoz’s pace, durability and pressure kill Aldo late, or the former champ pips a decision based on cleaner technique. Although Aldo is well within his career twilight, he snapped a three-fight slide by out-wrestling and out-experiencing Vera. The key to the match-up is Aldo’s willingness to call upon his leg kicks. Pulling them out of his locker against Yan after a long absence, Aldo proved the power was still there. Munhoz’s consistency with low kicks, often throwing them naked, may well break Aldo before himself, however. Despite being primed to counter Munhoz’s telegraphed shots with combinations that break Munhoz’s high guard, Aldo worryingly gasses by the later rounds. Early wrestling and Munhoz’s reliance upon his chin to drag Aldo into extended exchanges will only speed up the process. Aldo’s more diverse arsenal is still being backed, but this could be a razor-thin decision that comes down to personal stylistic preference)
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Michael Chiesa – Decision (Counter-puncher supreme, Vicente Luque deserves some damn respect put on his name. The Brazilian’s money left hook was no more apparent than during the first round against Wonderboy, regularly catching the elite striker with the counter hook off the cage. Chiesa represents a test that Luque hasn’t often faced. Showcasing decent defensive grappling against Leon Edwards, Luque’s only real evidence of TDD came against the aged Tyron Woodley. If Luque can keep himself standing for three rounds, Chiesa will be dismantled on the feet, but there isn’t much evidence to back this hypothesis. Far more likely is Chiesa wraps up Luque early and grinds out another decision against a dangerous opponent)
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Tecia Torres – Decision (A rematch from 2015 from which Torres claimed bragging rights, both ladies have developed their games immensely. Torres’ original tactic of regular takedowns and extended periods of lay n pray remains a viable avenue to victory. While Hill’s knees and elbows are dangerous intercepting tools, Torres should still be aiming to rush out the blocks and grind Hill to the mat. Hill, of course, has made huge strides in her defensive grappling. Regular stuffing Michelle Waterson’s takedowns, and holding her own in the clinch, Hill is able to keep the fight standing longer. Lightning-fast hand speed coupled with sharp combinations, often built around a ramrod jab, will out-class Torres’ tiny stature at range. It isn’t likely that Torres will choose to trade on the feet, however)
Casey Kenney – Decision (A telegraphed pressure fighter, Yadong is a prospect that hasn’t shown much improvement over the past five fights. Failing to use angles, Yadong launches into combinations on a straight line as if it were pad work. Flurries of heavy hooks are dangerous in any weight class, though. For all of Kenney’s awkward technical expertise, Yadong has the potential to clean Kenney out through power alone. The American’s chin may well be able to hold up against the power of Yadong, having survived a back and forth war with fellow prospect Nathaniel Wood. A wicked volume fighter who pushes a relentless pace, Kenney can tire his more explosive foe and win cleaner rounds later down the line)
Rafael Fiziev – Decision (Fiziev is only a couple of highlight-reel finishes away from becoming an easily marketable product for the UFC. Although questions remain over Fiziev’s ability on the mat, the Kyrgyzstan native has a canny knack for dragging fighters into wars on the feet. Green’s low volume counter-punching is a horrendous stylistic match-up against the relentless pace of Fiziev. Fiziev also isn’t likely to test his mettle in the pocket, leaving Green stranded at range while Fiziev dances around with kicks. Groundwork to seal rounds would be an excellent weapon, but it just isn’t likely when considering a fighter who loves a technical battle up close)
Drako Rodriguez – Submission Round 2 (Damn, this is the bout between two men who have both fallen to Aiemann Zahabi. Dangerous in the pocket, Morales quickly becomes lost in any other area. Thankfully for Morales, Rodriguez possesses some of the worst decision-making in the UFC. Rodriguez can be easily coaxed into a war on the feet, effectively negating his dangerous grappling. A questionable chin is an issue, but hey, it remains Morales’ only viable path to victory. With more tools in the locker than his opponent, however, Rodriguez is the safer pick)
Alonzo Menifield – TKO Round 1 (The clinch will be the key to Herman’s success. If the veteran can remain defensively savvy during a scary first-round, Herman can eventually snatch up a clinch against a plodding Menifield. Menifield remains a fun fighter to watch despite most of his fights descending into car crashes. Having made strides to iron out his pacing issues, Menifield has also shown a more rounded skillset following a dominant wrestling and grappling performance over Fabio Cherant. Herman is a level above, but the forty-year-old is athletically shot and difficult to back)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Decision (Stylistically, Kowalkiewicz should be able to unleash a clean striking clinic against Penne – an utterly hittable opponent. Since her knockout loss to Jessica Andrade, though, Kowalkiewicz hasn’t looked comfortable in the octagon. After a year out, perhaps Kowalkiewicz has recovered mentally to approach the twilight of her career with renewed energy. An energetic grappler, Penne could use her size to takedown the Pole and hold on for dear life. Kowalkiewicz strong TDD indicates this could be a fifteen-round kickboxing affair, but it is impossible to say how far gone Kowalkiewicz is)
Miles Johns – Decision (Dos Santos is a bang average fighter but that doesn’t mean he isn’t fun to watch. Flying out the blocks early, the Brazilian aims to break opponents with pressure. Periods of inactivity are interrupted with huge overhand blitzes before clinching opponents against the cage. Johns is a wrestle-boxer with a solid jab that lacks a ‘wow’ factor. While the uppercut KO over Natividad was a beauty, Johns more often fights behind his jab after failing to kickstart his wrestling)
Victoria Leonardo – Decision (Following a string of cancelled debuts in the UFC, Gatto finally gets the shot to showcase her exceptional submission skills. Rusty striking is a red flag, as is the time off for drug bans. Since Gatto’s last fight, Leonardo has fought eight times. Although Leonardo is Slow, methodical and doesn’t shine in any one area, she still remains the favourite. With a solid enough TDD to keep away from Gatto’s scary grappling, Leonardo can win an ugly decision on the feet through virtue of less awful striking)