Dustin Poirier – TKO Round 3 (In a make or break fight for McGregor, it makes it incredibly difficult to predict whether the Irishman is still capable of putting aside his ego and implementing necessary changes to his approach. Poirier’s low kick may have reigned supreme last time out, but his awkward shoulder rolls and crisp counter punching were also vital to Diamond’s victory. Poirier’s durability, southpaw stance and wrestling also created questions for McGregor, without considering the clear conditioning issues he experiences during the championship rounds. Still, this is Conor McGregor. Ever dangerous in the first round, McGregor carries a nuclear-left hand alongside a canny knack of reading opponents from the get-go. Undoubtedly, McGregor will be capable of responding to Poirier’s kicking barrage by retracting his lead leg, trading low kicks or awkwardly checking the low kicks. Rather, McGregor’s biggest change needs to be towards his over-extension on the left straight. While McGregor was able to catch Poirier flush a couple of times, more often than not the Irishman was peppered with a sharp jab or hard right hook. With a greater focus on Poirier’s body, wide open as a result of his awkward high guard, McGregor’s stabbing front kicks or a probing body jab would create Diamond real defensive issues. When considering the vast improvements made to Poirier’s game over the years, however, it is far safer to predict Poirier riding an early storm before finishing an exhausted McGregor) Feeling lucky? Poirier by sub round 3 @ 40/1.
Stephen Thompson – Decision (If there were ever a fighter who deserved another title shot, it would be the NMF. Technically polished on the outside, Thompson bleeds opponents with sidekicks and jabs, before landing simple but lightning-fast boxing combinations. A master of controlling distance and angles, Wonderboy changes entry by mere inches to fire shots through an opponent’s guard. Burns is a live dog in this affair, especially when considering his freakish power and affinity for burning hot starts. The Brazilian’s chopping low kick also offers a counter to Thompson’s liquid footwork. The visible decline in Burns’ output past the first round, however, could leave him a sitting duck. More so when considering Burns’ lack of head movement and often blind power shots. While Burns’ BJJ remains a factor, his wrestling isn’t on a level to threaten Wonderboy and is reliant on a knockdown to take this to the ground)
Tai Tuivasa – TKO Round 3 (Tuivasa is a very poor fighter, but he has the chin and style that could break Hardy’s questionable mental. Although the ex-NFL player has made huge leaps in his skillset, his gas tank will forever remain an issue. The chance of Hardy catching a KO in the first round is likely. Tuivasa wades forward with little nuance, often relying on his natural durability, while Hardy can effectively time hard counters. Still, if Tuivasa can keep his head between his shoulders, his relentless pressure will eventually lead to overwhelming Hardy against the cage. Dirty boxing and leg kicks will drag Hardy into a world of trouble and force him to look for a way out by the end of their contest)
Yana Kunitskaya – Decision (In the right match-ups, Aldana is one of the more entertaining fighters at Women’s Bantamweight. Jerky lateral movement combined with a snapping jab offers Aldana enough time to make necessary reads. Opening up with her right hand over the ensuing rounds, Aldana carries surprising power and makes a committed effort to dig into the body. Kunitskaya, unfortunately, will drag this fight into an ugly grappling affair. Safe enough to survive on the outside, Kunitskaya can easily force Aldana into fighting against the cage from where the Russian will adopt her lukewarm dirty boxing and lay n pray approaches)
Sean O’Malley – TKO Round 1 or 2 (Is this anything other than a tailor-made win for O’Malley and his biscuit legs? What is most frustrating is that O’Malley now takes a monumental step back after the wonderfully equal bout against Thomas Almeida. Often failing to correctly gauge the striking range, Moutinho drops his hands at the worst possible times. Considering O’Malley’s strength, speed and power, Moutinho is going to struggle to gain any sort of foothold)
Max Griffin – Decision (If Griffin actively used his wrestling, this would be a far easier fight to call. Unfortunately, despite solid wrestling chops, Griffin often only utilises his wrestling when he is well behind on the scorecards. While Griffin can tangle with Condit on the feet, Condit’s durability and volume are more likely to catch the scorer’s eyes. This is a very winnable fight for Condit, but his TDD will forever remain an issue)
Michel Pereira – TKO Round 3 (Extremely athletic and still young enough to develop, Michel Pereira is a fighter reborn. Tossing aside the wild unorthodox striking that entertained during his early UFC tenure, Pereira now favours more technical striking. While the proposed barn-burner against Khaos Williams never truly set alight, Pereira fought behind an educated jab. Without lunging in erratically, Pereira forced Williams into setting the pace which the frighteningly powerful counter puncher was unable to do. Huge strides need to be made before Pereira can comfortably box to decisions against elite opponents, but the natural athletic base is there)
Ilia Topuria – Decision (Despite two full years out the octagon (save a couple of days), Ryan Hall returns with a huge amount of anticipation. Hall’s exceptional BJJ is a threat to anyone at Featherweight if he can coax opponents to the mat. Fighting behind long, explosive kicks, Hall explodes on the feet, safe in the knowledge that opponents are unwilling to take him down. Topuria represents one of the only fighters on the roster that will actively seek to test Hall on the mat. Crisp boxing, specifically his continued focus on the body, will land far more often than Hall’s ambitious spinning kicks. If Topuria remains alert to Hall’s unorthodox rolls, his boxing and top game should inflict serious damage)
Trevin Giles – TKO Round 3 (Giles is a rising force at 185. More comfortable behind his ramrod jab, Giles possesses insane durability and a strong wrestling game. Able to grind opponents down over the full fifteen minutes, Giles’ style can carve through a shallow Middleweight division. Du Plessis, a viciously aggressive kickboxer, will struggle to crack Giles’ chin early. Despite owning a fearsome low kick and sharp hooks, Du Plessis’ leaky striking defence and poor gas tank leave him easy prey in the final round)
Jennifer Maia – Decision (Maia loves to walk opponents down and out-muscle them to the mat. Often bullying opponents in the clinch is enough for Maia to take it to the ground, from where she should be able to control the number one OnlyFans saleswoman. Eye is a form fighter than unfortunately finds herself on a three-fight loss. If Eye can land her jab from the outset, she will grow in confidence exchanging in the pocket. More likely, however, is Maia controls an ugly fight from start to finish)
Brad Tavares – Decision (Akhmedov is a boring-ass fighter to watch. Even against a weathered Chris Weidman, Akhmedov never truly committed on the feet despite Weidman gassing early in the second round. Tavares, despite his limitations, may prove to be Akhmedov’s kryptonite. An extremely strong TDD, Tavares will keep this affair standing. Although routinely failing to set a successful pace on the feet, Tavares somehow has enough quality to overcome Akhmedov’s pot-shotting hooks)
Jerome Rivera – Decision (Zhumagulov is a well-rounded if underwhelming, veteran who consistently walks opponents into surprising attacks. Despite a three-fight slide, Rivera has made real attempts to expand in every area of his game. Adding a strong kicking game to his monster 5’10” frame, Rivera’s greatest struggle is disengaging from the cage. With a six-inch height difference and still holding onto the promise shown in his DWCS appearance, I am foolishly backing Rivera)
Yaozong Hu – Decision (After a two-year suspension by USADA, Yaozong returns to almost zero fanfare. A durable, grinding wrestler, Yaozong’s move to Middleweight may see him more capably hold his own. Amedovski is a limited fighter, rushing out the blocks with the sole intent to sleep fighters. This is a man iced by John Phillips, though. Even after dropping the PEDs, Yaozong’s grinding wrestling should significantly kill the mood to kickstart the show)