TKZ – Decision (Have no doubts, this is the best fight you will find on UFC on ESPN 25. A lot has been made about a drastic decline in TKZ’s durability after the Brian Ortega fight, yet it could very well be true that Jung was fighting on autopilot from the second round onwards. TKZ remains a crafty counter-puncher with a great knack for timing, in addition to excellent anti-grappling against smaller opponents. While Ige showcased his power last time out against Gavin Tucker, more often than not Ige breaks opponents with swarming volume and grinding wrestling. 50K also tends to enter the octagon with the worst available gameplan (see Edson Barboza, Calvin Kattar). Even though Ige could fight out of Southpaw on Saturday, and cause TKZ the same trouble that Ortega managed, it’s unlikely the Hawaiian will have matured. If, as is expected, Ige cannot get TKZ to the mat, Jung should still have more than enough in the locker to piece Ige apart with counters for twenty-five minutes)
Sergey Spivak – Decision (Forty-three years old, huge gas tank problems and on a two-fight stoppage slide? No worries for Aleksei Oleinik. The Russian’s first-round barrage of goofy overhands and willingness to expend everything into the first available submission opportunity means 75-fight veteran remains a stark threat in the UFC. Physically, Spivak can’t count on any sort of freak athleticism to cruise past his ageing foe. Instead, the big Moldovan will have to grind out his chain-wrestling approach after riding an early barrage from his elderly foe. Recently using his reach and jab to greater effect, Spivak should have rounded out his skill-set to the extent where he can ride the early wave of pressure before grinding out the final two rounds)
Marlon Vera – TKO Round 3 (Big Davey Grant is one of the surprise packages of the pandemic period, having transitioned into a striker-first fighter with knockout power. Throwing every imaginable strike during the early exchanges, Grant searches to find a strike that lands before solely throwing that same successful strike ten more times. While better counter-punchers will read Grant, Vera doesn’t pose such a threat. Instead, Vera’s chopping low kicks, as evidenced against O’Malley, will be hugely important against Grant. By destroying Grant’s front leg, Vera can root his opponent in place for rangey head kicks or more easily pressure Grant back to the cage. Vera’s durability, kicking game and powerful clinch work, combined with Grant’s recent focus on the stand-up, points toward the relentless Ecuadorian breaking down the Brit)
Julian Erosa – Decision (After a fairytale return to the UFC, Julian Erosa has started to build serious hype behind himself. A true pressure fighter with searing front-foot aggression and stellar cardio to back it up, Erosa’s tireless volume breaks opponents through attrition. Erosa’s bouncing advances on the feet, with a lack of head movement to follow, leaves his chin wide open for the destructive counter-punching of Choi, however. Heavy-handed, Choi excels when opponent’s walk into his powerful counters. Although a good scrambler, Erosa’s ugly yet effective wrestling will wear on Choi throughout the affair and prove the difference)
Bruno Silva – TKO Round 2 (Having just served a two-year suspension after testing positive for the anabolic, Boldenone, Bruno Silva had better make up for the career delay. Reckless on the feet, Silva’s freakish power and durability have a canny knack of bailing him out. After suffering the first knockout loss of his career, in addition to a lengthy battle with COVID, there are several red flags over what Wellington Turman will enter the octagon on Saturday. A takedown artist who searches for the body lock, Turman isn’t the prettiest fighter to watch but he is a grinder who often finds a way to top position from where his best work stems. Turman’s mental capitulation to Andrew Sanchez’s aggression is a worrying factor considering Silva’s stylistic similarities)
Dhiego Lima – TKO Round 3 (Look away Matt Brown fans. At forty years old, and with a record book of punishing fights, Brown’s famed chin seems to have all but worn down. While Brown is still capable of delivering huge power, as seen against Miguel Baeza, the distinct drop in Brown’s speed is visibly stark (once again, seen against Baeza). Dhiego Lima is a patient counter-puncher who glues himself to the fence, but his chopping low kicks will destroy Brown. In a war of attrition, there isn’t much left in Brown’s locker in 2021)
Aleksa Camur – Decision (Although it may not be a name you have heard in a while, Nick Negumereanu is the man who lost to Saparbeg Safarov in his UFC debut (yes, Safarov, the man who lost in two rounds to Gian Villante). Negu’s padded record was exposed two years ago, but hopefully, the Romanian has built upon his strong physical base to incorporate some sort of TDD. Unfortunately for Negu, Camur is a physically imposing wrestler with an array of spinning attacks. Issues with Camur’s gas tank remain, but he should be more than capable of keeping Negu down on the mat)
Kanako Murata – Decision (Despite the size advantage, relentless pressure and clear jiu-jitsu disparity, Jandiroba’s woeful striking still makes it difficult to back her. Lacking any sort of confidence or fluidity on the feet, Jandiroba struggles to work in takedowns as she cannot close the distance effectively. Murata is a grinding wrestler herself, and while the Japanese prospect isn’t the greatest striker herself, she carries power and can string together combinations. I imagine this to be a scrappy affair, with Jandiroba getting the better of the clinch against a smaller opponent, but Murata is scrappy enough to keep the fight standing long enough to secure a decision)
Khaos Williams – TKO Round 1 (Surprising almost everyone, Semelsberger has hit the ground running in the UFC. Able to maintain a solid pace for three rounds, Semelsberger can also counter opponents off their own counters. By dictating the pace and exchanges, Semelsberger is already halfway there to beating Khaos Williams. Despite the freakish power and accurate counter-punching, Williams is lost when forced to engage first (i.e. Michel Periera). Semelsberger has holes in his striking defence, however, and Williams has proven his quality against much stronger competition in the UFC)
Josh Parisian – Decision (Martinez, contrary to his comical size, has a decent gas tank and puts out a surprising volume. His mediocre hands will not be enough to stop Josh Parisian from overwhelming him on the feet with power shots. Moreover, Parisian will struggle to find an easier opponent to bully against the fence and eventually smother him from top)
Joaquim Silva – Decision (After taking almost two years out, it’s nice to see the return of stoppage artist, Joaquim Silva. Silva’s explosive striking can cause him to flag during the later rounds, but early work to the legs will effectively put money in the bank. While Glenn’s granite chin is unlikely to be cracked, there’s always the possibility of a cut or an injury. Moving up to Lightweight after a history of tough weight cuts may lead to an extra pop, but more likely increased weight prevents Glenn from bullying opponents as effectively)
Casey O’Neill – Decision (A relentless grinder on the feet and mat, O’Neill’s breathless volume frustrates opponents while masking her frequent attempts to take the fight to the mat. The more process-driven wrestler in the bout, her rounded game benefits from clear game-planning. Capable of pumping out a crazy pace, Lara Procopio drew great praise after rising to the occasion against Karol Rosa. Unfortunately, the Procopio that faced Molly McCann was happy to engage in a pedestrian wrestling affair. A chain wrestler who eventually finds one that sticks, Procopio needs to learn to dictate fights on her own terms)