Charles Oliveira – Submission Round 4 (Regardless of whether either man truly deserves a shot at the vacant title, this stylistic match-up is absolutely filthy. Two outcomes seem most obvious. On one hand, Chandler finishes this early as a result of his massive power differential, aggressive cage cutting and Oliveira’s leaky striking defence. On the other, Oliveira’s aggressive kicking game keeps Chandler outside boxing range, wears on Chandler’s suspect gas tank, forces unfavourable wrestling exchanges which eventually sees Oliveira snap a submission. Yes, Chandler has successfully seen the final of the championship rounds several times, but he noticeably fatigues. Since moving up from Featherweight, Oliveira seems to have ironed out his conditioning issues. Moreover, Chandler struggled to deal with Hooker’s leg work during his debut, a weapon that Oliveira has honed over the past couple of years. While Chandler’s sweltering top control has not yet been showcased in the UFC, it could be Oliveira’s kryptonite if he is forced against the cage. Off his back in the centre of the octagon, however, Oliveira has the space to work his magic – utilising the threat of the armbar to gain a superior position rather than secure a submission (I’m sure Tony Ferguson would say differently though).
Tony Ferguson – Decision (It is still so difficult to estimate just how far Ferguson has regressed, and to guess whether Ferguson will change his style/approach after a brutal two-fight slide? Ferguson’s unrelenting pressure may have been countered by Gaethje’s power differential, yet there was no excuse against Oliveira as Ferguson offered little off his back while being rag-dolled. Still, Dariush is a flawed fighter with enough holes in his game that even a hollow Ferguson may be able to conquer. Dariush is a powerful wrestler who since suffering a wobble over 2016-2018 has regained his identity as an aggressive, heavy-handed striker who fluidly mixes in pressure wrestler. Lingering in the pocket and dropping his hands after firing combinations, however, plays directly into Ferguson’s high-risk high-volume arsenal. If Ferguson approaches this fight in a similar vein to the Oliveira fight, however, he will be ground out against the cage (rather than the mat).
Matt Schnell – Decision (Despite the incredibly rocky start to his UFC career, Schnell has battled back to a 5-1 rise which has showcased tightened boxing and less blind takedown attempts. While Schnell’s chin will always raise questions, his slick stick and move boxing against Tyson Nam last time out highlighted the maturity of Schnell’s game. Although heavy-handed, Bontorin bites hard on feints and suffers against fighters who pick their shots on the outside. Moreover, while Bontorin is a beast on the mat and a huge submission threat, his risk-taking allows opponents ample opportunity to escape back to the feet).
Katlyn Chookagian – Decision (With Araujo’s preference in the UFC to keep fights on the feet coupling with Chookagian’s solid TDD, expect a patient kickboxing battle where Chookagian’s length proves key. Araujo is the superior athlete, able to chip away with her jab and time excellent shots. Chookagian utilises her reach advantage to its full extent, as seen against Cynthia Calvillo where a variety of counter straights and front kicks kept her at a comfortable distance. Chookagian’s deep gas tank and higher volume will see her through a low-risk affair).
Edson Barboza – Decision (JUST BLEED TIME. An absolute bloodbath in regards to stylistic clash, Burgos’ pressure and desire to scrap in a phone booth will force an exhausting pace out of Barboza. Despite making a shock move down to Featherweight, Barboza has been able to make weight decently and appears massive on fight night. The game plan on how to beat Barboza has been out for years, pushing the Brazilian against the cage and stifling his kicking game. Burgos’ insane durability and pressure ensure ample opportunity for extended striking exchanges, but his almost non-existent ring cutting means Barboza can keep a safe distance away from the cage).
Jacare Souza – TKO Round 2 (If Souza is to lose this, the Brazilian legend needs to retire. Muniz is a tall Middleweight with heavy head kicks and a strong submission game off his back, but there remain so many flaws. No jab to write about, little to no positional awareness in the octagon, and too inactive when held against the cage, this should be easy pickings for Souza. On a three-fight slide, with questions raised about his durability after the Holland TKO from top position, this fight is less easy to predict. Yet Souza was able to grind out a solid performance in the horrendously boring decision loss against the hard hitting LHW champion, Jan Blachowicz. Threatening with short combinations, as well as pockets of success against the fence and in the clinch indicate there is still life in the old dog).
Mike Grundy – Decision (By moving down in weight, Vannata may finally be able to showcase his wrestling rather than solely his enjoyable counter-striking. His low hands and light feet will cause Grundy a world of trouble on the feet, but the Englishman will instead be gunning to grind out Vannata on the mat from the opening bell. Grundy’s issue remains his gas tank, flagging up hard during the later rounds, and a late Vannata stoppage is a likely outcome. Still, the Englishman’s underrated power and dirty boxing should be enough to capture the early scorecards).
Jamie Pickett – TKO Round 3 (Wright is an explosive striker on the outside with ridiculous power, he is far too easily bullied against the fence. With his back against the cage, Wright can land cutting knees and elbows (as seen against Ike Villanueva) but having never gone to a decision, we are left unaware of whether he can survive during the later rounds. Pickett is a limited fighter, but he picks his counter strikes well and threatens with takedowns/clinches when he finds himself in dangerous positions. After surviving the early barrage against Tafon Nchukwi, Pickett should be able to do the same again and drag Wright into deep waters).
Andrea Lee – Decision (In a pure Muay Thai fight, Antonina would fare much better, yet the threat of the takedown often leaves Antonina gun shy and refusing to sit into her counters. Lee can lose herself in her blistering combinations, leaving herself open to body kicks, but eh relentless aggression will keep Antonina unable to commit all night. While Antonina has made huge leaps on her ground game since the Chookagian fight, Lee’s ability to mix the grappling/wrestling with her striking is far more seamless).
Gina Mazany – Decision (Mazany is very much at the lower end of the gatekeeper spectrum; just enough to keep Instagram models like Rachael Ostovich out of the UFC, but not qualified to give tough rounds to Julia Avila or Macy Chiasson. Mazany will have the opportunity to show her wrestling chops off against the very limited power punching Priscila Cachoeira. Cachoeira is as durable as they come, but that’s about it).
Tucker Lutz – Decision (This is the last chance saloon for Aguilar, on a three-fight slide and never entertaining, the patient striker needs to finally find the shot of his life. Lutz is a powerful kickboxer with solid wrestling chops and grinding top control, but there are gas tank issues that Aguilar can expose during the later rounds. Lutz volume and aggression should be enough to see him bank the early rounds, even with a dip in activity late)
Christos Giagos – Decision (Soriano returns to the UFC after a previous 0-3 stint back in 2013-2014, this time, however, Soriano has tightened up his striking. Utilising a ferocious leg kick, Soriano beats opponents out of their comfortable stance and opens them up to powerful hooks. Soriano struggles on the ground, however, an area that Giagos thrives. Now using strikes as a means to close the distance and set up the takedown, Giagos’ main issue is conditioning. Possible late Soriano finish, but a decent amount of layin and prayin should see Soriano through to a decision)
Feeling lucky?
Tucker Lutz by KO/TKO (+420)
Mike Grundy by Finish (+320)
Gina Mazany by Finish (+320)
Rogerio Bontorin by KO/TKO (+600)
Jacare Souza by KO/TKO (+470)
CHARLES FUCKING OLIVEIRA ML (-134)
Combined Odds: +639025