Value bets
Heat 1Q ML @ +167
Heat ML @ +267
James over 3.5 turnovers @ -167
If you believe wearing the red jerseys tonight will have a huge effect and give the Lakers “Space Jam” strength then we’re all for it which is why we are tipping Lakers -3.5. However, If you don’t believe in that and want some value tonight we are tipping Heat ML.
Safe bets
Adebayo o15.5 points -118
Crowder o10.5 points -208
LeBron o26.5 points -213
Crowder o4.5 rebounds -227
KCP o1.5 Threes -161
Rondo o0.5 steals -263
LAL -3.5 + LeBron O24.5 pts (-115) 5.75U/5U
Some very interesting stats on why you should bet Lakers ML:
The Lakers have lost 4/19 of their playoff games (1 loss to each team they’ve faced). Only one of their 15 wins was by less than 6 pts
The Heat have lost 6/19 of their playoff games, all within the past 12 games. Only one loss was by less than 6 pts; they lost by an average of 10 pts
The average margin of victory in this series is 11.25
Teams up 3-1 in a playoff series have won the series in 5 games 155/259 times (60%), and within 6 games 225/259 times (87%)
LeBron has scored 25+ pts in 9 of the last 10 games, 14/19 in the playoffs overall. 2/4 of the Lakers’ playoff losses were games in which LeBron didn’t score 25+
LeBron has averaged 28.8 ppg in his playoff career
LeBron has averaged 30 ppg in his 3 previous Finals clinching games
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